Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a38664ffcd9c21f537b415599560bf6748248bf86bba8366993c4bcbfefc89b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 53c | 743.29$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.53 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 68c | 706.11$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.39 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 45c | 457.8$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.47 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 68c | 427.28$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.96 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 59c | 416.92$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.94 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 42c | 400.69$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 32c | 379.52$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.64 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 52c | 343.29$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.12 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 318.8$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.78 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 299.99$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.99 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 270.92$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 25c | 257.35$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 71c | 254.39$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 249.66$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.97 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 234.28$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.69 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 41c | 226.28$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.72 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 32c | 201.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 185.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 173.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 60c | 172.5$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 68c | 170$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ee…11b4backed No | 47c | 168.75$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 161.11$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.97 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 160.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 43c | 155.81$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 155$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 43c | 153.96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 139.17$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 24c | 127.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 127$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 120.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 75c | 117.54$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 37c | 114.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 10c | 111.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 107.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 47c | 104.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 71c | 104$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 31c | 103.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 54c | 100.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 24c | 93.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 38c | 93.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 58c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 57c | 83.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 57c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 16c | 73.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd071…92ccbacked Yes | 71c | 70.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 50c | 69.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 67.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 75c | 64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 78c | 63.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…9b39backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 48c | 61.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7666…1ecfbacked Yes | 55c | 57.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 48c | 56.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 24c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 44.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 70c | 44.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 40c | 44.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 60c | 41.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 28c | 41.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 78c | 37.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 53c | 37.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 36.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3580…714ebacked No | 58c | 36.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…cfc8backed No | 68c | 36.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 58c | 33.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x667c…559cbacked Yes | 65c | 30.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 58c | 30.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 68c | 29.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 72c | 27.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 74c | 24.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…55d7backed Yes | 44c | 24.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 56c | 22.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ac…df7cbacked Yes | 71c | 21.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 71c | 18.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 56c | 18.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 56c | 18.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…2202backed Yes | 61c | 18.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.