Earnings · resolved market
Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8799cc9d0d491c736c76d6906e9cf9cf10913d285bcf50ca834ff4d50753116
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 21c | 2,897$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.76 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 76c | 986.12$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.14 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 79c | 800$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8469…dab0backed No | 28c | 642.75$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.73 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1245…e0afbacked Yes | 79c | 423.35$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked No | 22c | 288.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 80c | 277$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Yes | 78c | 233.8$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 168 | 64.3%108 W · 60 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 160$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 179 | 35.2%63 W · 116 L | -14.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 25c | 150.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…9aeabacked No | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…5bd3backed No | 22c | 145$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 20c | 127.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 25c | 127$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 22c | 117.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 26c | 100.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 67c | 97.06$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 48c | 94.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.07 | 262 | 50.4%132 W · 130 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 32c | 90.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Yes | 68c | 88.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 19c | 64.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d465backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…8028backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 33c | 37.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -17.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa518…8262backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4739…894fbacked Yes | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.