MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa89b3e22e8e2b99be45eb5d2950c433ef00a8874784db53e0531f6e7ad728142
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 43c | 12,510$5,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,350.74 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Under | 60c | 12,282$7,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,939.42 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 47c | 6,979$3,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,280.26 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…5780backed Under | 56c | 6,973$3,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,068.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 45c | 3,882$1,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,746.99 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…1fbebacked Under | 56c | 2,608$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.46 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb4…4039backed Under | 55c | 2,500$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 2,322$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.67 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 54c | 1,351$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.25 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 54c | 1,305$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Under | 55c | 1,222$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.81 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 65c | 1,201$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.36 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 56c | 1,185$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.18 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 40c | 1,015$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.49 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 24c | 1,005$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.39 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Over | 41c | 941.07$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.84 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 44c | 765$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.6 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Over | 41c | 705.8$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.38 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 471.82$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.6 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Over | 46c | 469.07$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.77 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 54c | 456.68$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.03 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 65c | 420.37$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.13 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Over | 35c | 409.08$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.18 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 5c | 299$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 45c | 268.74$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.93 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c8…103dbacked Under | 58c | 263.2$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5816…ef6abacked Over | 43c | 260.77$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Under | 54c | 212.96$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.96 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Under | 54c | 194.48$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.46 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1759…49e5backed Over | 47c | 190.01$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +159.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 75c | 167.01$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Over | 35c | 165.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 45c | 145.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee1d…ccc9backed Under | 54c | 144.06$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 52c | 115.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeda…6595backed Over | 47c | 103$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 45c | 89.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 45c | 89.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Over | 45c | 89.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 45c | 89.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 45c | 89.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Over | 45c | 89.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 126 | 56.3%71 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 41c | 84.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Under | 55c | 76.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Over | 45c | 74.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 44c | 69.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1b25backed Under | 56c | 58.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Over | 47c | 58.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed Over | 42c | 57.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 46c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Over | 42c | 46.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 47c | 45.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…3affbacked Under | 54c | 43.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Under | 54c | 43.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 45c | 41.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Under | 58c | 40.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 69c | 37.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 45c | 32.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Under | 54c | 29.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Over | 44c | 29.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 47c | 27.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Under | 54c | 20.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.