Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8c7cac9525bb87ecc0dd091b2a14a1c8a6ccc1076e7103083466470b47261ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 17c | 315.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 22c | 238.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 236.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 77c | 235.19$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 39c | 234.05$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.33 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 35c | 200.28$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.62 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 16c | 144.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 58c | 116.36$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 46c | 110$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 101.71$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…674ebacked No | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 91.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 45c | 89.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 43c | 87.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 87.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 86.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…31c2backed No | 27c | 78.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 76.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 71.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 39c | 71.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 60c | 67.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 66c | 66.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 38c | 65.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 61.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 22c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 71c | 43.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed No | 44c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 42c | 41.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…4409backed Yes | 63c | 40.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 28c | 38.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…1ab8backed Yes | 54c | 37.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 36.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 59c | 28.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 72c | 22.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 15.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.