Mls · resolved market
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-07-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8e964790045b36e13bf4050d4f66b7033ee0e419830d0922e58101ea502222b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b62…5cc8backed No | 80c | 8,000$6,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 21c | 2,083$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.44 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 15c | 2,024$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.81 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed Yes | 7c | 2,015$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.05 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,400$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 19c | 1,247$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.17 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,041$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.36 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 20c | 711.32$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.26 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Yes | 21c | 477$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c1…017ebacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 15c | 439.6$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 79c | 416.65$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 4c | 386.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked No | 80c | 326.31$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 20c | 284.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 9c | 262.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Yes | 21c | 201.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 8c | 129.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 21c | 109.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…ca2dbacked Yes | 21c | 95.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd6…1b08backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 20c | 77.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 75.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 80c | 72.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 92 | 68.5%63 W · 29 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 21c | 53.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…02ccbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…d5fdbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x083e…81a1backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 78cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 79c | 30.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked No | 80c | 25.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 79c | 21.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-07-22?this page
- Will Houston Dynamo vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-07-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.