Mls · resolved market
Will Houston Dynamo vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3423e129b216be4dda4abd8f4995ed5adb041a53648926f34ced23ae214dd34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 25c | 10,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,499.97 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8397…a04dbacked No | 16c | 4,635$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 72c | 3,602$2,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.36 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Yes | 30c | 2,806$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,963.97 | 102 | 73.5%75 W · 27 L | +13.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Yes | 22c | 2,570$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,005.87 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed No | 21c | 2,494$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.25 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 78c | 2,044$1,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,585.71 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 75c | 1,748$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.31 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 1,401$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.67 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 75c | 1,318$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.34 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked No | 8c | 1,288$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 26c | 1,266$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.6 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 75c | 1,229$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.45 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 63c | 1,069$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.09 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked No | 70c | 1,001$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 68c | 760.01$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.73 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 75c | 665.61$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.21 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa8…4de1backed Yes | 17c | 600$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked No | 55c | 547.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.74 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 23c | 432.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.02 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 58c | 402$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.46 | 70 | 74.3%52 W · 18 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +39%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…1ef5backed No | 3c | 393$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ea…9c73backed No | 13c | 358.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 70c | 347.14$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 75c | 335$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.25 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 10c | 330.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 315$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.25 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 34c | 290.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked No | 75c | 256$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 70c | 242.64$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.85 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 49c | 224.34$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.15 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 51c | 192.3$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.07 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +13.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 189.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 52c | 185.26$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.24 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 75c | 182.33$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.75 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed No | 50c | 166.3$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 24c | 160.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Yes | 48c | 156$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked No | 10c | 154.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Yes | 67c | 141.25$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 26c | 135.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Yes | 59c | 122.03$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…bcd6backed No | 52c | 117$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 38c | 116$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 80c | 103.31$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 24c | 103.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.02 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed Yes | 66c | 97.35$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Yes | 79c | 95.93$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 31c | 95.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…a334backed No | 23c | 87.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6374…6408backed No | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.31per pick | 41cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 75c | 66.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 40c | 61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 49c | 55.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…02ccbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…1525backed Yes | 23c | 43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 42.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Yes | 68c | 40.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…7d0fbacked Yes | 60c | 40.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…bbd2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…cdebbacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2df7…7f76backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 44c | 39.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 75c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 43c | 27.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a6b4backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…1881backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab3…13b8backed Yes | 57c | 23.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5818…7386backed Yes | 50c | 23.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…22a9backed No | 76c | 23.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5a…4063backed Yes | 52c | 21.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Houston Dynamo vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?this page
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-07-22?No won
- Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-07-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.