Tennis · resolved market
Almaty Open: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Alex Michelsen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8ec2dd5f4ce7f8f18b0dc894b54e8f0a3f15e9a850d94dd976cb5e48dedb815
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michelsenof Mochizuki, Michelsen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michelsen | 62c | 9,949$6,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,731.58 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Mochizuki | 35c | 5,999$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.8 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Mochizuki | 40c | 2,499$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.6 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Michelsen | 62c | 2,359$1,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.2 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed Mochizuki | 43c | 2,310$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Michelsen | 65c | 1,070$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.1 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Michelsen | 46c | 1,022$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.36 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Mochizuki | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Mochizuki | 38c | 968.42$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Michelsen | 63c | 743.44$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.07 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Michelsen | 60c | 722.37$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.28 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Michelsen | 51c | 601.14$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.72 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Mochizuki | 38c | 589.47$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Mochizuki | 38c | 499.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Michelsen | 61c | 425.58$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.39 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc3…5a00backed Mochizuki | 35c | 420$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Michelsen | 66c | 407.31$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.73 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Mochizuki | 38c | 402.22$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.99 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Mochizuki | 40c | 375$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Michelsen | 60c | 350$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Michelsen | 62c | 324.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.72 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Mochizuki | 39c | 307.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73c4…a92dbacked Mochizuki | 12c | 244.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…4734backed Mochizuki | 59c | 216.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.96 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Michelsen | 60c | 200$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Mochizuki | 17c | 198.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Michelsen | 57c | 190$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Mochizuki | 36c | 180$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Michelsen | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Michelsen | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8d…037abacked Mochizuki | 38c | 158.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Michelsen | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Mochizuki | 38c | 147.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Michelsen | 61c | 119.14$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Mochizuki | 27c | 112.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba4f…7ecebacked Michelsen | 66c | 105.68$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Michelsen | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Mochizuki | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Mochizuki | 34c | 91.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Mochizuki | 34c | 87.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Michelsen | 75c | 86.41$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Mochizuki | 25c | 85.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…ed2ebacked Michelsen | 66c | 76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Michelsen | 59c | 67.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michelsen | 62c | 65.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Mochizuki | 38c | 65.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Mochizuki | 26c | 65.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed Mochizuki | 36c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Mochizuki | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Michelsen | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Mochizuki | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3412…3a3cbacked Michelsen | 75c | 38.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Mochizuki | 38c | 32.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…e758backed Michelsen | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Michelsen | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91aa…c606backed Michelsen | 79c | 25.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mochizuki | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Michelsen | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3306…9687backed Michelsen | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.