Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa99fe95bd0f5d40d6a27e79989506e89a6df61abebe5d908e923062990099b93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 30c | 272.78$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.86 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 14c | 265.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 249.39$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb1…1f81backed Yes | 38c | 209.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 46c | 197.89$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.88 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 191$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…1443backed No | 62c | 161.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 161.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 142.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 141.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 66c | 132.6$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 130.66$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 57c | 108.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 98.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 57c | 94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 88.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 55c | 84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 41c | 80.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 78.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 67c | 78.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 58c | 73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…4f19backed No | 55c | 68.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 34c | 67.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 43c | 63.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 49c | 61.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 17c | 61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 33c | 60.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 54c | 55.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 79c | 55.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…0307backed No | 56c | 53.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 51.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 54c | 49.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa594…91e8backed Yes | 47c | 49.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 40c | 46.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 44.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 64c | 42.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf2…76f0backed No | 54c | 36.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 35.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 43c | 34.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 60c | 33.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 61c | 32.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 55c | 31.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 77c | 28.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 72c | 27.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 73c | 27.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 27.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 59c | 26.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 60c | 26.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 25.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…9bc4backed No | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 61c | 23.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 23.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 47c | 21.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 62c | 21.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 55c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 54c | 18.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 58c | 17.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.