Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Women's: Rebecca Sramkova vs Jelena Ostapenko

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9fc87da704bc6adfb376aaf64eeb804f8b4f2a95373a3142200f60b7766d9a8

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Ostapenkoof Sramkova, Ostapenko
Resolved: Jan 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $66,619
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $73,433

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,619 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9fa9…c100backed Sramkova	51c	5,000$2,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,549.95	430	51.2%220 W · 210 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Sramkova	1c	4,916$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.07	2,331	7.9%183 W · 2,148 L	-56.9wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Ostapenko	54c	3,364$1,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,564.29	138	44.2%61 W · 77 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Sramkova	12c	2,980$367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.41	2,746	30.8%846 W · 1,900 L	-67.1wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Sramkova	54c	2,977$1,598 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,598.26	180	47.2%85 W · 95 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Ostapenko	61c	2,554$1,561 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$992.75	156	65.4%102 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	66cpaid	+2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Ostapenko	52c	2,276$1,192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,084.38	1,008	46%464 W · 544 L	-19.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Sramkova	40c	2,224$894 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$893.86	2,426	47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L	+45.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8be…f991backed Sramkova	18c	2,000$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.66	70	27.1%19 W · 51 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Sramkova	8c	1,848$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.23	2,489	45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L	-27.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Ostapenko	58c	1,643$954 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$688.14	8,217	45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L	+166.6wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Sramkova	49c	1,416$699 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.38	77	36.4%28 W · 49 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Ostapenko	54c	1,323$712 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$610.99	52	32.7%17 W · 35 L	-6.3wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x83d9…651bbacked Sramkova	55c	1,302$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$720.21	46	54.3%25 W · 21 L	+4.7wins	+0.10per pick	44cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2930…4cf8backed Sramkova	10c	1,250$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.75	126	31%39 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Sramkova	44c	1,156$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$513.01	7,018	43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L	+124.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Sramkova	17c	1,072$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.25	2,068	34.9%721 W · 1,347 L	-44.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Ostapenko	48c	1,044$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$543.88	1,446	48.8%706 W · 740 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Ostapenko	49c	1,000$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510	819	38.9%319 W · 500 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Ostapenko	48c	1,000$478 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$521.69	1,161	37.6%437 W · 724 L	-27.8wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Ostapenko	52c	837$436 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$401.03	990	44.8%444 W · 546 L	-10.8wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06a9…3b80backed Ostapenko	51c	790$403 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$387.1	118	43.2%51 W · 67 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedf1…6eb1backed Sramkova	2c	734.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.69	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-18%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1574…64c9backed Ostapenko	50c	597.06$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$297	476	39.1%186 W · 290 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Ostapenko	47c	595.3$283 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312.57	1,106	41%454 W · 652 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Sramkova	49c	584$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.16	121	47.1%57 W · 64 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf74d…9930backed Sramkova	54c	514.83$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	261	58.2%152 W · 109 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a37…6c95backed Sramkova	27c	370.37$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	53	22.6%12 W · 41 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+212.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a0…440cbacked Sramkova	51c	365.06$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.62	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-2.3wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Ostapenko	46c	338.35$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.71	1,090	35.9%391 W · 699 L	+16.2wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Sramkova	51c	333$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.83	223	44.8%100 W · 123 L	-13.0wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Ostapenko	49c	323.27$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.27	761	40.6%309 W · 452 L	-15.3wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Ostapenko	49c	303.03$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.55	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Sramkova	31c	285.02$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.24	222	36.9%82 W · 140 L	-10.4wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Ostapenko	50c	272.66$136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.13	960	35.4%340 W · 620 L	-40.5wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8339…caa9backed Ostapenko	52c	268.05$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.05	163	55.8%91 W · 72 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a45…41f6backed Sramkova	53c	226.42$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Ostapenko	49c	225.3$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.9	289	33.2%96 W · 193 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb8…5466backed Sramkova	59c	211.86$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Sramkova	21c	209.69$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.03	190	23.2%44 W · 146 L	-10.8wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Ostapenko	48c	208.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.33	518	49.4%256 W · 262 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Ostapenko	46c	206$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.24	97	44.3%43 W · 54 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Ostapenko	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	1,107	43.5%481 W · 626 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe889…d0c3backed Ostapenko	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	174	32.2%56 W · 118 L	-15.1wins	-0.09per pick	41cpaid	-22%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Ostapenko	44c	193.28$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.56	1,158	44.4%514 W · 644 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Sramkova	56c	165.16$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.25	262	44.7%117 W · 145 L	-15.6wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-17%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc74e…05babacked Sramkova	52c	121.85$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.36	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b0…8bc6backed Sramkova	42c	118.43$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.61	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-28%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f42…2260backed Sramkova	51c	117.65$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	161	58.4%94 W · 67 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2961…cfcfbacked Ostapenko	53c	113.21$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.21	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+3.1wins	+0.17per pick	44cpaid	+37.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x77c8…3072backed Sramkova	52c	111.06$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.75	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.18per pick	57cpaid	+32%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57c3…3201backed Sramkova	53c	110.79$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.72	189	57.7%109 W · 80 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Sramkova	47c	103.84$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.4	111	22.5%25 W · 86 L	-16.1wins	-0.15per pick	37cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1660…9d86backed Ostapenko	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	89	64%57 W · 32 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7fb…f935backed Sramkova	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	60	55%33 W · 27 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Sramkova	40c	83$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.2	1,028	33.6%345 W · 683 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Sramkova	46c	81.78$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.6	2,982	39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L	-109.1wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ee…8067backed Ostapenko	48c	79.17$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.17	499	55.1%275 W · 224 L	-7.4wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeabd…8115backed Ostapenko	42c	78.57$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.57	70	41.4%29 W · 41 L	-5.9wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-27%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bde…3800backed Ostapenko	67c	74.63$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.63	47	40.4%19 W · 28 L	-8.6wins	-0.18per pick	59cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x347b…388dbacked Sramkova	52c	72.94$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.93	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ab…f5c1backed Sramkova	59c	68.98$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.7	219	49.3%108 W · 111 L	-10.0wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ee7…fdf6backed Sramkova	51c	65$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.15	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Sramkova	42c	59.52$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	537	52.3%281 W · 256 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Ostapenko	54c	53.79$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.59	925	48.8%451 W · 474 L	+20.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x148c…d82bbacked Sramkova	51c	50.65$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.83	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe013…1ddcbacked Sramkova	49c	50.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.84	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Sramkova	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	363	49.9%181 W · 182 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2816…6ad7backed Sramkova	53c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	75	37.3%28 W · 47 L	-9.7wins	-0.13per pick	50cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Sramkova	49c	49.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	1,212	33.1%401 W · 811 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Sramkova	54c	47.32$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.68	884	55%486 W · 398 L	+37.4wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c37…3fd1backed Sramkova	54c	46.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	35	62.9%22 W · 13 L	+2.9wins	+0.08per pick	55cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xded8…9560backed Sramkova	67c	43.22$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.87	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.67per pick	67cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1793…4ebbbacked Ostapenko	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	940	60.6%570 W · 370 L	+11.3wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc5…7b98backed Sramkova	49c	40.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	62	69.4%43 W · 19 L	+6.7wins	+0.11per pick	59cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Ostapenko	37c	40.54$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.54	128	46.9%60 W · 68 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d60…456cbacked Sramkova	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	58cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Ostapenko	46c	35.98$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.38	7,724	47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L	+41.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7743…43ecbacked Sramkova	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+11%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe563…0cf5backed Sramkova	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	47	38.3%18 W · 29 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-27%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Ostapenko	41c	25.66$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.13	314	34.4%108 W · 206 L	-25.2wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe901…3139backed Ostapenko	49c	24.49$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.49	238	32.4%77 W · 161 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-24%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Ostapenko	70c	18.89$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.76	281	39.1%110 W · 171 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Australian Open Women's: Rebecca Sramkova vs Jelena Ostapenkothis page
Set 1 Winner: Sramkova vs OstapenkoOstapenko won
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Sramkova (+1.5)Ostapenko won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Australian Open Women's: Rebecca Sramkova vs Jelena Ostapenko

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event