Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9feaa3f9f7c0fc88a2d926ca858dc0f6bd622e32dbb0b66c269c607d070c4d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 1c | 7,944$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 942.95$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.59 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 15c | 905.63$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.09 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 15c | 382$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 371.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 321.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 11c | 300.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 15c | 293.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 18c | 256.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 246.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 19c | 241.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…bdeabacked Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 9c | 199.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 182.39$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 24c | 159.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 157.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 15c | 140.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 12c | 135.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Yes | 20c | 132.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 12c | 124.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 18c | 119.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 112.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 14c | 109.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 11c | 101.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 20c | 101.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 80c | 101$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 19c | 99.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…a330backed Yes | 13c | 99.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 17c | 84.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 14c | 83.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 75.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 70.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 15c | 66.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 80c | 52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…a3b9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 20.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on July 23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.