TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,013
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,924

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,013 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee2d…6968backed Yes0c9,333$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116940.6%28 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bcd…28a1backed Yes38c2,204$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-9.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9d56…eb97backed Yes1c1,356$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.56100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22556543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed No55c497.84$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.0346232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No65c495.17$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.122,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No56c484.04$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.222,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes21c387.27$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3315334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No48c347.15$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.1210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes39c345.27$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3870741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No54c341.55$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1157150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91f8…d951backed No74c296.75$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.755752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cd2…c304backed No72c294.46$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.6316038.8%62 W · 98 L+18.0wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+123.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No59c278$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.024,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No61c268$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.5289557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No62c264.96$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.832,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No69c241.43$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.1264021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No71c233.58$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.174,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No60c225.79$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.382,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d7e…3660backed Yes24c213$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.255328.3%15 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes56c200.07$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.041,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No51c198$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9821340.8%87 W · 126 L+23.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+34%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No51c182.39$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.944,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No62c177.83$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.042,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No55c171.4$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.244,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No59c170$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.954,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes47c160.21$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.672,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c160$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.8612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x517d…f41fbacked Yes51c160$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.613048.5%63 W · 67 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No78c152.16$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0867158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e53…14e7backed Yes43c142.75$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6815027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes29c125.41$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9456627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No55c125.09$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4453951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed Yes46c125$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6123668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes30c124.95$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.221,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bd3…af33backed No55c124.51$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.033748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes31c120$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7267336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3d77…7004backed No69c115.73$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.373151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No57c112.73$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.161760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No44c111.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.274,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Yes30c110$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.549646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes44c109$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5124542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2df9…4534backed No46c108.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3525747.5%122 W · 135 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No52c106$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.044,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes23c101.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1542849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4719137.2%71 W · 120 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c99.61$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.629,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No43c93.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.32,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x335c…733fbacked No52c93.39$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7610262.7%64 W · 38 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No49c91.72$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3542366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No64c89.97$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.096,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes16c81.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.128641.9%36 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45c3…d5d9backed Yes23c80.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.52142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No48c78.41$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8485049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No58c73.67$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.853,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No47c73.03$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8565353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x613a…2185backed No51c72$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.162536%9 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes23c70.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.361,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No78c70.51$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5145675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes20c70.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.183,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No55c67.56$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.77,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e3a…258ebacked Yes50c67.02$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.51520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-31.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No50c66.44$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2598565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed No52c64.05$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7418240.1%73 W · 109 L-16.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No51c61.08$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.031,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf261…3335backed Yes51c60.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.383839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No54c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.654253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No60c58.63$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.383,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes25c55.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed No53c55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8518449.5%91 W · 93 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes38c54.78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.852,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d02…8c5dbacked No79c52.77$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115754.4%31 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No51c52.38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.671,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes37c52.34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.244,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes35c51.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No69c50.8$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.751,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x308f…8607backed No53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.54348.8%21 W · 22 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-23.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes27c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4542643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.560550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.51,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes29c49.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.517831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed No54c49.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8624751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf01d…bb31backed No75c46$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.516272.2%117 W · 45 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2bc…1485backed Yes41c45.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.796346%29 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed Yes23c45.69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3737465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes40c45.05$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.855,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8177…e5d4backed No66c45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.448976.4%68 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed Yes57c44.96$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8495852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes44c44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.256,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No54c44$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.242,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes30c43.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.052,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No49c43.39$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.28,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes42c43.26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.252,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No69c42.95$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.211,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.676936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x30fe…74bcbacked No71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.618671%132 W · 54 L+19.2wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+18.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd7ea…ea62backed No65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142853.6%15 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.