TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on July 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$69,761
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$86,912

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,761 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes4c4,616$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,447.8328324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa925…6483backed No2c2,115$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363669.4%25 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick65cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No5c1,911$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.252,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes8c1,525$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.468,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes76c1,203$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.5940265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No4c1,162$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.47,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes9c927.28$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.8936930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c913.44$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.941884.8%9 W · 179 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+91.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f11…53b0backed Yes75c909$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.145349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes8c890.24$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.189,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes29c757.07$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.0421236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x91f8…d951backed Yes71c635.65$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.655752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No58c570.32$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.012,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes64c547.45$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.116,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No62c417.37$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.424,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No35c384.35$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.714,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No53c367$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.734,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No11c360.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.324,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed No29c356.96$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8816552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No41c355.94$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.341,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes11c320.42$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.7235429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No7c300.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes9c290.82$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.7664021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c283.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.692,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes77c276.85$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.4236648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed Yes69c240.72$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.65054%27 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No56c211$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.865,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6981…e643backed Yes9c211$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,033.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes64c204.3$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.8379947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d77…7004backed Yes69c200.01$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.343151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes72c199.97$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2132440.1%130 W · 194 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes59c191.72$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.1922849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No14c167.03$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.082,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No27c163.39$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No45c150$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.21,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes74c146.12$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.264776.6%36 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4441…680abacked Yes50c146.06$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.754235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes8c140$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.0872624.8%180 W · 546 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed Yes70c129.5$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.253951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3bd3…af33backed Yes70c128.17$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.153748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x335c…733fbacked Yes65c120.82$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3910262.7%64 W · 38 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes45c100.54$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.722,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x302b…7a54backed Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.16624.2%16 W · 50 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.51,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x517d…f41fbacked Yes55c98.5$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5213048.5%63 W · 67 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes66c90.44$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.441,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed Yes72c90.07$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.124751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes59c88.5$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.661,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes57c85.06$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9399962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee54…a5eabacked Yes74c83.62$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.622161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9009…1621backed Yes72c82.55$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0819663.3%124 W · 72 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd456…8a8bbacked Yes79c80$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.844542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ed3…878abacked No53c79.11$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.61955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+97.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf184…d472backed Yes78c77.49$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.399769.1%67 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb347…a115backed Yes64c74.8$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.311041.8%46 W · 64 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes54c70.75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.756627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed Yes77c67.77$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3537465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes54c66.24$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7270741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No43c60.83$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1589951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes47c60.27$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2438655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes69c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6525947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes78c53.39$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7786847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No50c40.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.311,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48c8…4ccabacked No49c40.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.993240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed Yes61c40.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6143540.5%176 W · 259 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes41c40.1$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.532,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes58c39.08$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.342849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa8d2…f6e2backed Yes68c37.82$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.192748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes73c36.71$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.998356.6%47 W · 36 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed Yes66c35.85$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0264460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xfed9…6510backed Yes45c33.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes48c32.42$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8821964.8%142 W · 77 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9b…7349backed Yes80c31.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.25450%2 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked Yes70c30.2$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1242061.2%257 W · 163 L+19.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d74…5393backed No53c30.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1640%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No40c28.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.69262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x2849…0329backed Yes66c28.64$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.711090%9 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick64cpaid+41.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf51f…24e8backed Yes49c28.06$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.243250%16 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-17.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa144…963bbacked Yes69c27.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.66714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No72c22.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.921,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes48c21.03$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9943559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2292…65a2backed Yes58c20.97$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.88650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No62c20.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.522,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes65c18.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4747239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.