TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,243
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,476

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,243 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37e6…794ebacked Yes1c13,590$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.51476.4%3 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-76.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a85…ff94backed Yes0c10,433$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.071741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c9,581$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.523,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes27c966.05$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.2610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes13c527.6$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7442820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes13c516.93$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.13,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes22c502.55$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.518,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes7c493.71$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5628324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No77c470.24$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.462,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes13c400.75$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.361,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No75c392.02$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.592,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No80c329$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.934,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79ad…4eedbacked No74c320.58$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.896845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked No63c316.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.1535429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes13c293.07$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes36c277.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes30c268.03$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.181,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No70c258.93$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.4433350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes13c233.59$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.96,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes8c218.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.527,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked No72c205.2$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.926265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes28c203.62$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3864021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e53…14e7backed Yes35c197.94$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6115027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No65c168.91$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.652,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes36c165.86$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7182742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1ac…a769backed Yes28c164.19$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.971741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No66c151.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3666944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No71c150$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.184,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No68c149.81$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.379,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No80c146.86$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4421340.8%87 W · 126 L+23.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+34%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf956…9bf0backed No67c143.43$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.433351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes31c138.7$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4323731.6%75 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes17c136.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4656627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb86…fb51backed Yes9c132$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.313511.4%4 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes38c131.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes30c125$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.572042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Yes12c124$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6249646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes33c120.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5232738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No76c119.99$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.476,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4cb1…4028backed Yes28c119.63$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3f…8af6backed No66c119.49$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.633246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes30c119.21$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.624,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a41…2562backed Yes13c115.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157055.7%39 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes33c115.1$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1142849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No76c114.77$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.564,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes20c107.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.232,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No80c103.96$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.041,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes24c103.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9519137.2%71 W · 120 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc950…9420backed Yes21c100.58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6313035.4%46 W · 84 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107129.6%21 W · 50 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06da…af33backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025332%81 W · 172 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147413.5%10 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ccc…d0c5backed Yes33c98.43$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.48742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d77…7004backed No71c95.89$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.913151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes24c92.35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.262,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed Yes41c91$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3923668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes27c90.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.91,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c89.55$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.455,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775c…28a9backed No70c88$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.48964%57 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No72c83.84$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.842,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d7e…3660backed Yes46c81.93$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.695328.3%15 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4441…680abacked Yes34c81.41$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes34c75.18$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5612453.2%66 W · 58 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes32c74.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No69c72.6$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.512,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36c8…ef0dbacked No73c68.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.33757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No71c66$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.141,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No48c63.06$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.565353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a0a…2f0cbacked Yes34c58.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x335c…733fbacked No79c57.74$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9510262.7%64 W · 38 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No71c56.66$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.472,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No77c52.38$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.051,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No69c50.8$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.751,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1215334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes24c48.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.719,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes50c46.05$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.982,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No79c45.95$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6595852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x500e…53c7backed Yes35c43.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fe…74bcbacked No72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.418671%132 W · 54 L+19.2wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+18.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.363,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No74c38.46$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1054253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes36c37.47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.348650%43 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes30c37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2812157%69 W · 52 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No76c36$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.663,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes36c35.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.852,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee54…a5eabacked Yes35c34.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.172161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…98eabacked Yes36c33.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb635…2506backed Yes40c33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.27825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-67%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No62c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.164,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked No80c31.26$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2614060%84 W · 56 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes35c31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8514919.5%29 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.22,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5954…266abacked Yes57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.15255.8%29 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No73c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5694066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed9…6510backed Yes38c26.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d2…f6e2backed No79c25.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.272748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1dc…4f72backed No70c22.79$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7924164.7%156 W · 85 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x025e…bb39backed No75c21.39$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3510554.3%57 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No48c21.28$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1338655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff5…14babacked No71c21.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1315375.2%115 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.