TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,013
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,358

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,013 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37e6…794ebacked Yes0c10,421$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.75476.4%3 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-76.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49a9…1388backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3f…8af6backed No77c4,397$3,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.523246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes1c1,889$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1628324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes17c1,876$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.888,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d4…ee54backed Yes1c1,788$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes11c624.84$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.769,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes26c576.66$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.8442820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes15c564.71$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.282,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes25c551.16$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.46,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes17c511.56$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9121236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes26c478.98$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.162,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No78c416.48$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.594,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No79c394.41$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0564021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No69c392.99$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.14,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed Yes26c384.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10026744.2%118 W · 149 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No73c367.51$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.724,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes11c360$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.61,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No66c347.48$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.281,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked No76c332.91$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.2236930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes8c287.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9816733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes19c286.64$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4379947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes27c250$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.597152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes15c245.27$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.733,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes14c239.8$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.671,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Yes5c232.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.449646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d7e…3660backed Yes14c228$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.845328.3%15 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No76c228$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.925,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed No62c204.41$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.4137150.4%187 W · 184 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes9c191.32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.732,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e53…14e7backed Yes28c183$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1415027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes26c180$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.235429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes25c166.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.52,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes18c162.66$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes31c158.09$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.533,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes34c154.37$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.812,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No75c153.38$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.621,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8847…262dbacked No60c144.91$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.3225230.6%77 W · 175 L+21.0wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes22c140.16$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.691,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28c1…b087backed Yes15c138.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1916220.4%33 W · 129 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No74c137.93$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4566944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes12c131.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2159144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes9c131.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.611679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes23c131.3$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7170148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes26c130.8$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.382,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdba1…8239backed Yes9c115.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5812853.9%69 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes41c113.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.931,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed Yes35c112.98$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4616552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes16c106.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.372,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0736…0bd2backed No74c101$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5844…5bd4backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes14c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.57921.5%17 W · 62 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x744f…caffbacked Yes14c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.58023.8%19 W · 61 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327413.5%10 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaafb…f2cdbacked Yes16c99.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-15.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No76c98.02$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.286,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes24c97.73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.842849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x438a…61c4backed Yes35c94.28$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3323143.3%100 W · 131 L+19.0wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes19c86.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes22c84.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6530333%100 W · 203 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes22c84.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6472952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes16c78.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.755,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No75c76$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.21,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb635…2506backed Yes18c76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-67%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc15…cca6backed Yes19c67.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9226441.3%109 W · 155 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes27c64.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.342,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes24c64.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3967336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed Yes38c59.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9918240.1%73 W · 109 L-16.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes39c56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7425947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes28c55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6256627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes20c55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2712157%69 W · 52 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes37c54.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.762,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1317637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1360550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0128742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed Yes48c48.37$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4115345.8%70 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed No70c47.5$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2530131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes26c46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.881,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5597…0c9fbacked Yes31c40.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.662653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+54.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes26c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.57,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5f61…840abacked No65c38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3837570.7%265 W · 110 L+62.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes32c37.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9910023%23 W · 77 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes28c37.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.432,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x58a3…c5cebacked No55c37.47$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.867748.1%37 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bb3…2c94backed No65c35.58$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5314919.5%29 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No78c35.14$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7372042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No78c34.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.611,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes37c34.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.668650%43 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No63c34$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.482,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes40c32.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.062,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85aa…691bbacked No69c32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.922259.1%13 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No64c30.17$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.741,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.389951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No71c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.848261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2f7b…efddbacked No72c27.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5954…266abacked No78c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.595255.8%29 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed No55c22.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3438146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No65c21.83$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.641,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.