Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa052fa766197989a5747f6735926017f7143cdbe480efdb9bf7c4ea2076b924
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 26c | 8,134$2,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,084.89 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 75c | 5,840$4,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.89 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fe…4ef4backed Under | 21c | 2,631$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 79c | 1,964$1,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.73 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…1aafbacked Over | 68c | 1,471$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…dcf1backed Under | 34c | 1,387$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Under | 34c | 1,324$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 32c | 888.69$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.38 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 67c | 840.1$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.23 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f08…65d2backed Over | 76c | 710.18$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 32c | 558.85$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.17 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c3…9f0fbacked Over | 67c | 502.43$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 34c | 441.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc274…6d59backed Over | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Under | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Under | 34c | 299.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7839…54cbbacked Over | 67c | 299.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 77c | 261.04$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda4…d5dbbacked Over | 76c | 243.98$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 68c | 220.59$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 69c | 217.03$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 79c | 199.98$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 32c | 169$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 170 | 43.5%74 W · 96 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Over | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 68c | 146.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 67c | 111$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Under | 34c | 102.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 32c | 95.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2600…f0dcbacked Over | 67c | 83.55$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ed…03ebbacked Under | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 34c | 76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 77c | 70.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc149…bb7abacked Under | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…5b8bbacked Under | 34c | 67.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 26c | 65.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Under | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc8…6875backed Under | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 69c | 55.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…8a93backed Over | 68c | 53.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Under | 23c | 53.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 69c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 33c | 40.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Under | 34c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Over | 66c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Under | 34c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed Over | 66c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…8a9ebacked Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 72c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked Over | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked Over | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 68c | 20.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…6613backed Over | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 70c | 17.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…41f2backed Over | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 67cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b6…4dd8backed Over | 74c | 15.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…5f43backed Over | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f2…d106backed Over | 68c | 14.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.