Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dc79fc5f6aa15b25a3e48e01e99a6969e31cf5d7483210ab5d4913d0f1676e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 27c | 5,932$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,343.95 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…a795backed Under | 73c | 5,791$4,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,230.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 1,640$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.01 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 28c | 1,249$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.11 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f08…65d2backed Over | 38c | 1,174$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 62c | 989.5$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.55 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c6…fde6backed Over | 27c | 548.63$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Under | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Under | 71c | 500$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 73cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 74c | 499.99$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.99 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 451.13$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.29 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 27c | 400$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 50c | 292$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.67 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…c7aebacked Under | 76c | 288.41$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c4…a218backed Under | 68c | 263.24$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1741…6f97backed Under | 74c | 244$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 39c | 232.93$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.05 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39bb…9e51backed Under | 70c | 213.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 74c | 202.7$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2321…6a04backed Under | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1b…4b36backed Under | 72c | 167.64$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 26c | 152.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.66 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.95 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Over | 25c | 148$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 56c | 140$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Under | 76c | 130.49$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6250…8707backed Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 25c | 108.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.66 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x930e…adbdbacked Over | 23c | 104.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 59c | 100.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…8e64backed Under | 75c | 85.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Under | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +115.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…9942backed Under | 74c | 67.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 35c | 67.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 39c | 61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 25c | 54.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Over | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 31c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…7ab1backed Under | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed Under | 75c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Under | 75c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83b1…cac1backed Under | 75c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Under | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee74…abd9backed Under | 76c | 31.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…22c4backed Under | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Under | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Under | 75c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb180…8905backed Over | 67c | 22.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Under | 75c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…04d0backed Under | 70c | 21.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Under | 75c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Under | 75c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 76cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.