Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa125a054c2555c5c1bcf657abcd7034469c1ceca01d7b1e48d45a29f8110062
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed Under | 46c | 591.02$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.87 | 176 | 51.1%90 W · 86 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ba…06b3backed Over | 54c | 555.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.74 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 48c | 529.35$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1669…1363backed Over | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x211d…3ab7backed Over | 52c | 159.62$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6d…9d6abacked Under | 54c | 149.17$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 45c | 141.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 46c | 131.71$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 49c | 127.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.73 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 48c | 119.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 51c | 107.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1924…504cbacked Over | 54c | 83.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…cbe8backed Over | 53c | 74.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3eb…33d3backed Under | 51c | 71.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 46c | 65.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 64.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x949c…ab2cbacked Over | 54c | 64.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…25bdbacked Over | 55c | 61.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 52c | 60.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Over | 53c | 56.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Over | 55c | 49.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7d2bbacked Under | 57c | 46.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6be3backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked Over | 55c | 36.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…ba9cbacked Over | 50c | 30.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…75abbacked Over | 52c | 30.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Over | 52c | 23.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Under | 45c | 22.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed Over | 58c | 21.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham PlayoffsTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game 3: Ends in Daytime?Yes won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Tundra Esports (+1.5)Tundra Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.