Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x274c73330f01e1bcf53753fb505a074eb13b0c341110b8634f2c154c8caa0da2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Aurora, Tundra Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $452,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $510,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $452,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 412 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Tundra Esports | 53c | 48,404$25,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,616.69 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Tundra Esports | 50c | 41,988$21,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,988.17 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 43c | 41,388$17,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,684.45 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora | 51c | 21,855$11,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,143.74 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Tundra Esports | 61c | 17,951$10,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,032.01 | 201 | 56.7%114 W · 87 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Aurora | 49c | 13,859$6,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,784.53 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba4a…9fa6backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 13,513$7,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,940.49 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Tundra Esports | 52c | 9,566$4,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,596.13 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…0924backed Aurora | 49c | 8,083$3,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,959.75 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…a603backed Aurora | 49c | 6,814$3,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,338.65 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked Aurora | 43c | 6,737$2,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,887.33 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Aurora | 45c | 6,086$2,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,736 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…fe97backed Aurora | 41c | 6,021$2,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,468.61 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Aurora | 45c | 6,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.97 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -8.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 45c | 5,998$2,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.42 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfc…ce53backed Aurora | 52c | 5,868$3,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,051.16 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked Aurora | 29c | 5,857$1,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,722.64 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…0958backed Aurora | 53c | 5,660$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000.03 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…dba0backed Aurora | 48c | 5,500$2,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,640 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Aurora | 5c | 5,397$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.69 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora | 38c | 5,332$2,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,026.29 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Tundra Esports | 51c | 5,000$2,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,461.45 | 171 | 33.9%58 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Aurora | 53c | 4,738$2,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,507.64 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…e05fbacked Aurora | 43c | 4,209$1,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,809.87 | 412 | 42.2%174 W · 238 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Aurora | 1c | 4,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Aurora | 13c | 3,753$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.42 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 3,628$2,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,544 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f3…d80abacked Aurora | 1c | 3,532$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…434bbacked Tundra Esports | 51c | 2,923$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.1 | 228 | 42.1%96 W · 132 L | -25.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Aurora | 18c | 2,771$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Aurora | 45c | 2,752$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.31 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f2…07f8backed Aurora | 46c | 2,622$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.01 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410d…d831backed Aurora | 41c | 2,492$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.59 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed Aurora | 42c | 2,377$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.97 | 318 | 35.8%114 W · 204 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82da…da33backed Tundra Esports | 42c | 2,373$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.97 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9553…cfc7backed Tundra Esports | 55c | 2,186$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.26 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora | 17c | 2,161$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.99 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…eb66backed Tundra Esports | 73c | 2,050$1,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.18 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Aurora | 49c | 2,020$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.91 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 13c | 2,006$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.44 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Tundra Esports | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 1,994$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.6 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Aurora | 44c | 1,950$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.78 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Aurora | 48c | 1,910$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.4 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…33ddbacked Aurora | 48c | 1,845$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.56 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a96…3087backed Aurora | 18c | 1,817$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0acfbacked Tundra Esports | 42c | 1,800$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.99 | 183 | 62.8%115 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Tundra Esports | 68c | 1,800$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.98 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Aurora | 49c | 1,796$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.87 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…d3f1backed Aurora | 47c | 1,739$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.31 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…9fb0backed Aurora | 1c | 1,700$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 41c | 1,666$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.49 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…d6e5backed Tundra Esports | 55c | 1,642$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.82 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1942…2c75backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 1,515$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.34 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Tundra Esports | 47c | 1,500$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.74 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee3…7c36backed Tundra Esports | 53c | 1,422$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.25 | 241 | 31.5%76 W · 165 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…e80cbacked Aurora | 3c | 1,372$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked Tundra Esports | 56c | 1,315$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.62 | 165 | 50.9%84 W · 81 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Tundra Esports | 48c | 1,300$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.99 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Tundra Esports | 61c | 1,298$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.14 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Aurora | 8c | 1,284$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tundra Esports | 51c | 1,218$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.14 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ff…a491backed Aurora | 44c | 1,200$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Aurora | 19c | 1,181$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.13 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Aurora | 49c | 1,153$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.03 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1259backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 1,087$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.71 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Tundra Esports | 52c | 1,085$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.11 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Aurora | 43c | 1,083$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.06 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…3b71backed Aurora | 60c | 1,070$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Tundra Esports | 51c | 1,033$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.04 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Aurora | 61c | 1,011$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.08 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked Aurora | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Aurora | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Aurora | 44c | 999.98$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.99 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Tundra Esports | 42c | 959.99$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.8 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Aurora | 50c | 954.51$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.22 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora | 45c | 948.56$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.03 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Aurora | 44c | 930.2$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.8 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…319ebacked Aurora | 55c | 903.5$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.92 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…a06bbacked Aurora | 5c | 894.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 378 | 11.1%42 W · 336 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Aurora | 56c | 889.42$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Tundra Esports | 56c | 878.61$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.04 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…9e22backed Aurora | 50c | 878$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f24…9141backed Tundra Esports | 42c | 871.98$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…8b33backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 854.56$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.61 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…fb7bbacked Tundra Esports | 51c | 843.91$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.75 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Aurora | 51c | 838.45$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.98 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b6…d7cebacked Tundra Esports | 56c | 825.05$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.27 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora | 29c | 791.41$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.5 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Aurora | 47c | 777$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.19 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3f…6941backed Aurora | 57c | 725$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.93 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Aurora | 50c | 724$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb11…66cbbacked Tundra Esports | 55c | 716.9$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.09 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…594fbacked Tundra Esports | 61c | 655.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.74 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1391…6b3fbacked Aurora | 22c | 649.97$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.49 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Tundra Esports | 49c | 614.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.67 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 610.34$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.34 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Aurora | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 236 | 50.4%119 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham PlayoffsTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game 3: Ends in Daytime?Yes won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Tundra Esports (+1.5)Tundra Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.