Champions League · resolved market
Will Ajax Amsterdam win on 2025-09-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa39ad4af6550e155727abb9e4706387ce52993bbe7fd78a8b53d403545891c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $289,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $292,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $289,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Yes | 19c | 240,000$45,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,599.99 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 80c | 10,813$8,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,166.32 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…c16abacked Yes | 20c | 4,425$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 21c | 3,913$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.41 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 22c | 3,100$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.5 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes | 8c | 1,756$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.46 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Yes | 20c | 1,665$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 21c | 1,576$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 8c | 1,549$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ee…016ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,333$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 22c | 999.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 80c | 970$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 20c | 880.77$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.56 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d4…d3aabacked Yes | 20c | 731.25$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.25 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +183.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 77c | 697.07$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.33 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 80c | 607.95$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 19c | 599.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…99ffbacked Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…b035backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6324…95b9backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 19c | 433.33$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.33 | 129 | 21.7%28 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 197 | 55.3%109 W · 88 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4921…6f6cbacked Yes | 6c | 348.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 22c | 325.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…8f03backed No | 78c | 307$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +53%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd549…296dbacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e2…1331backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x001b…1bd7backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 20c | 260$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a3…9b79backed No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…a119backed No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…7135backed Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7428…e742backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e3…06f9backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 233$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f93…e313backed Yes | 20c | 223.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…e978backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…c40fbacked Yes | 12c | 190.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda5…840dbacked Yes | 19c | 184.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb9…8bf3backed Yes | 13c | 160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…d3c7backed Yes | 14c | 139.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed No | 79c | 135$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afb…942cbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0a2dbacked Yes | 18c | 110.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e5…610ebacked Yes | 19c | 110.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cba…c616backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…316ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9be…27bcbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf47…326fbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe799…137ebacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d4…1165backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…be51backed Yes | 19c | 71.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec9…be9dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad3…915abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…79e4backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…485dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39e…5182backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1d…e338backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…70fdbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…6415backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…7edabacked No | 79c | 49.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…4812backed Yes | 23c | 49.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5d…430abacked No | 79c | 44.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x484f…28cbbacked No | 80c | 27.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…e85ebacked No | 80c | 13.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ajax Amsterdam win on 2025-09-17?this page
- Will Ajax Amsterdam vs. Inter end in a draw?No won
- Will Inter win on 2025-09-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.