TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,362
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,088

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,362 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdd10…7544backed Yes17c655.05$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.923548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes7c494.38$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.321,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes21c485.96$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.868,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed Yes4c481.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4854234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes3c465.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.011,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No69c379.62$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.0512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed Yes12c337.84$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9815435.7%55 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes7c321.34$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6842820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb411…9d28backed Yes17c292.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bf9…f253backed Yes38c261.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-57.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes37c260.69$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9710642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No67c208.43$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0123666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No64c206.9$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.271,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes29c198.1$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9495933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes34c191.75$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.286420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No69c182.23$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2560054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No71c182$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.075,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d9a…dbe1backed Yes14c176.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.473043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No65c172.82$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.1810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No63c168.17$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.948,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes31c157.08$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7616543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes14c141.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes11c139.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.631,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes18c138.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.297,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No63c125.56$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.533,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No78c115.57$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8140265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes14c115.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1688028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes29c110$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.429732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfa7…3fcebacked Yes37c109.65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.71421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-58.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes12c108.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No63c105$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.32,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No80c102$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.774,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes36c100.67$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5174338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No67c100.62$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.129,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x464c…f570backed Yes33c100.01$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bad…b337backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1232310.5%34 W · 289 L+15.6wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3671031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No78c96$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.333,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7195…177abacked Yes33c91.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.271050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65eb…2c83backed Yes22c89.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.69650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes29c83$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1720144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x27a0…cecdbacked Yes31c80$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253315.2%5 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes32c80$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2115328.1%43 W · 110 L+10.0wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c78.47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No65c76.9$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9283360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x451a…3b01backed No67c74.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2517858.4%104 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes32c70$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.21,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c70$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.93,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…a02bbacked Yes22c69.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.140%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No72c69.9$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5725358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fa1…4674backed Yes37c68.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc45a…1565backed Yes35c65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.752114.3%3 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-61.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes25c61.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.420438.7%79 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No63c60$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9741760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No69c59$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2919737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No62c58.15$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.314,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8629…bdf5backed Yes30c56.71$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2812832%41 W · 87 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No65c56.23$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5916550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes37c54.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes35c53.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7280130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc67e…8929backed Yes34c52.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184129.3%12 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes34c52.22$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7528441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.515666%103 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe9a…9456backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfea5…ee06backed Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9427029.3%79 W · 191 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No65c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.73,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.23,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411724.8%29 W · 88 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes31c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.510042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes31c48.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1561249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes31c47.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1514932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No66c45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4892678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes24c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.89,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed Yes36c45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2244465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No71c43.46$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.648743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes34c43.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.527,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes32c43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7664333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5ab…8e21backed No79c42.41$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.923562.9%22 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick71cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc91c…02debacked Yes37c40.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.666735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f1c…ebffbacked No80c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813461.2%82 W · 52 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf794…aba2backed No64c35.01$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.62152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No61c34.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.652,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No63c31.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4955855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.553353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked No68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4142151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No61c28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.921,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc714…e39ebacked No67c25.42$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.391275%9 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+36.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No71c23.97$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9583459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d4e…5ac9backed No65c22.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0621472%154 W · 60 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No66c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4871464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked No58c22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.249832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae91…e382backed No73c20.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.554852.1%25 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No68c20.07$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.471,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.865965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3f7…c14bbacked No79c19.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1610973.4%80 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No73c18.97$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.132,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No66c17.16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8391861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.