TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,592
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,483

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,592 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcfa7…3fcebacked Yes1c3,866$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.531421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-58.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes51c571.27$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.3388028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes80c500.44$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006955.1%38 W · 31 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-20.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes27c497.92$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.264,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No47c467.63$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.623,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes11c450.06$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.466,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No57c450$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No39c438.17$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.413,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked No71c420.14$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.4345130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes65c372.61$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.815570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes19c349.98$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No51c335$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.25,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No39c323.26$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.3840265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes10c313.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.982,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d9a…dbe1backed Yes56c302.93$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.823043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed No62c287.58$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.141,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf9…f253backed Yes43c234.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-57.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes29c224.93$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2372837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed Yes48c219.2$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.8915435.7%55 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes42c210.99$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6215334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes36c209.2$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No58c204$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.435,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes36c202.05$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1239427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005450%27 W · 27 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes55c199.37$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11015131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes33c197$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed Yes15c189.22$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1654234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No38c184.9$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.971,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x340c…f130backed Yes47c174.48$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.936637.9%25 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No57c174.24$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.960054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No58c163.06$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.532,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x972a…aee7backed No33c159.22$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.455547.3%26 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No38c154.91$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.2912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes50c150.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.783,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes43c145$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6329732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f1c…ebffbacked No41c135.15$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.2213461.2%82 W · 52 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes38c134.79$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4651631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No55c126$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.074,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No24c125.59$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.951,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9110…c879backed Yes60c124.8$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.473348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No38c123.33$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.971,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfea5…ee06backed Yes35c119.23$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4227029.3%79 W · 191 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes39c112.42$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3474338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes54c110.06$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.383459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes45c110$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes61c109.57$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6125839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb411…9d28backed Yes71c109.56$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No69c109.43$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4497570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes50c109$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.561,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked Yes66c108.53$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5592678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd10…7544backed No54c105.3$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.323548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3af8…ed8abacked No52c99.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No59c99.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes34c99.96$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf045…c619backed Yes61c97.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6018035.6%64 W · 116 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96b0…67c5backed Yes45c93$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.52138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes54c90$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes59c84.54$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.471,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No60c84$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.625358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes40c81.71$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6933746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes52c80$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4496620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No53c79.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3831649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes40c75.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3341331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes51c75$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.956434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes41c73.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3491444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No52c71.86$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.535,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked No62c71.72$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2746549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes42c71.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012540%50 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes50c71.39$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.412,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No56c70.35$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.151,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes36c70$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.251,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed Yes68c69.5$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1425766.1%170 W · 87 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No49c68.6$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2917747.5%84 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No51c63.34$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.049,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.216847.6%80 W · 88 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.141,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes39c59.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No50c59.59$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.591,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f35…e3fcbacked Yes51c58.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-51.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfab…602dbacked Yes50c58$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No69c56.84$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.612,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No71c56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.142160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No71c54.95$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2198571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes37c53.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda33…daccbacked No60c53.61$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.445834.5%20 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes39c53.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.614,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No34c51.31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7788650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes79c50.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b846backed Yes50c50.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.162846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked No59c50.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.616543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.586952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed No23c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.567633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c84…3f63backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013839.1%54 W · 84 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes72c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No59c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.63,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2042151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes39c49.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.510042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe9a…9456backed Yes42c49.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2230%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes55c48.1$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.632,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.