MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa9bc407a4917f45e6b0898771387e7cbe3e4bba8e921c3aeb9e619db289f596
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 42c | 1,788$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.04 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.16 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 73c | 518$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.37 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf531…121cbacked Over | 46c | 443.31$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 35c | 432.42$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 30c | 391.03$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.17 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Under | 56c | 327.78$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.56 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 250.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 27c | 246$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 237.97$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.58 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 195.11$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 78c | 181.73$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 54c | 118.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 53c | 99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 38c | 90$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 87.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 72c | 84.28$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Over | 41c | 60.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 55c | 55.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked Over | 43c | 54.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 71c | 51.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed Over | 37c | 49.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 69c | 41.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 30c | 39.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 30c | 36.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Over | 37c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 65c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 60c | 23.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore OriolesAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.