MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd14d0e893696f48e31a73b0a59a22f4a3940b7e4076ad04e6beb68d8bb2f099a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 48c | 36,079$17,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,317.95 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 52c | 27,719$14,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,305.23 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 7,381$3,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,978.74 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 7,117$3,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,804.12 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4d…3ac6backed Under | 5c | 5,093$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +261.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 52c | 4,306$2,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,066.88 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 1,783$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.84 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaf…d959backed Over | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.85 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.25per pick | 49cpaid | -50%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 52c | 1,113$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.07 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 989.44$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.19 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 47c | 982.87$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.19 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9905…add3backed Under | 53c | 951.26$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 52c | 637.31$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.31 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 7c | 630$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed Under | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 7.2%5 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 52c | 554$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.92 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 57c | 459.1$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.32 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 47c | 389.29$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.51 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Over | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed Under | 5c | 210.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 54c | 173.21$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.55 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Under | 46c | 162.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 162.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.77 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Under | 46c | 149.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 20c | 149.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 48c | 142.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 43c | 131$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked Over | 46c | 128$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.24 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 52c | 121.86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 47c | 92.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 68c | 86.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 52c | 80.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 53c | 80.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 47c | 74.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 54c | 70.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 46c | 55.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 52c | 54.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 50c | 48.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab5…95fabacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 38c | 42.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…b7d4backed Under | 53c | 37.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 53c | 35.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Under | 49c | 34.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 46c | 32.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Under | 64c | 30.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 46c | 25.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Under | 66c | 22.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 46c | 21.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 47c | 21.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Over | 57c | 19.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore OriolesAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.