MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5c196347bea824a9e951176e92eb90045fb4ba2aa68ae3ca340d90b9735c2eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8aad…1155backed Under | 12c | 3,676$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x625a…f957backed Under | 9c | 3,333$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 52c | 2,420$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.74 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 51c | 2,392$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.01 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…b35cbacked Under | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 1,299$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.92 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…1296backed Under | 17c | 1,200$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 52c | 1,056$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…4c4ebacked Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 7.2%5 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e50…0ea8backed Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…9490backed Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…f51abacked Under | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 41c | 999.89$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.06 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…ad74backed Under | 16c | 937.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d2…399bbacked Under | 15c | 773.43$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 12c | 701$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 613.25$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.48 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 570.59$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.12 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe846…252bbacked Under | 22c | 500$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 46c | 401.57$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.85 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 36c | 348.01$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.19 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 58c | 339.47$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.3 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 50c | 277.75$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.8 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 28c | 235$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.02 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 50c | 218.36$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 23c | 208.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.7 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 18c | 208.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 41c | 196.01$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.09 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…767dbacked Over | 52c | 191.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Under | 59c | 164.72$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 46c | 136.96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 47c | 125.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…94cfbacked Under | 45c | 107$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…8c41backed Under | 20c | 70.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 75c | 70.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 37c | 67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Over | 35c | 60.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 49c | 60.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 63c | 57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 43c | 54.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Under | 79c | 51.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked Over | 44c | 51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c0…0974backed Under | 45c | 47.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked Under | 45c | 40.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 29c | 37.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 75c | 36.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Under | 63c | 30.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Under | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 63c | 18.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 56c | 18.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore OriolesAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.