MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0cac67caf05589d3745abb3ea060400d893cbc55e0cdf7d6ce57f8980e59180
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 9,513$4,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,428.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 53c | 8,795$4,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,133.26 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 2,031$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.45 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 59c | 1,338$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.19 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 48c | 416.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 53c | 352.89$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.82 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 58c | 227.75$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.17 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.47 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 147.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 51c | 125.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Over | 40c | 115$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…6aa5backed Under | 50c | 96.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c0…0974backed Under | 50c | 96.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked Under | 50c | 96.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…74d2backed Under | 50c | 96.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed Under | 46c | 93.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 54c | 55.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…1c6dbacked Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…6e88backed Over | 64c | 34.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 52c | 24.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 49c | 23.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Over | 51c | 22.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 63c | 22.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore OriolesAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.