Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaa18bc213eb450e8678ab7c996d70a33713e2e0f78ea330b2a84d5b5b6e05d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 15c | 2,213$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.32 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,765$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.85 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 6c | 1,140$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 8c | 1,036$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 19c | 928.01$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.23 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 2c | 799.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9393…9cddbacked Yes | 8c | 748.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 8c | 606.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b1…1f1ebacked Yes | 23c | 537.45$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 499.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 494.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 3c | 471$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 457.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 5c | 438.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 19c | 400$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 375.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…b648backed Yes | 10c | 356.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7531…35debacked Yes | 11c | 319.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 315.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 7c | 310$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 16c | 257.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 8c | 235.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 211.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed No | 79c | 200.21$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked No | 77c | 199.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 21c | 194.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 78c | 187.71$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 7c | 176.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 11c | 175.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 24c | 171.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 26c | 168.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 9c | 161.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 29c | 155$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 9c | 153.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 152.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660b…e5acbacked Yes | 13c | 149.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 33c | 147.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 77c | 139.57$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5153…7bc0backed Yes | 11c | 132.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…6b30backed Yes | 15c | 131.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 25c | 121.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 121.11$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 29c | 114.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 66c | 102.63$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…d55dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…de73backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 16c | 94.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 22c | 90.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 16c | 88.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 18c | 80.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e00…05a1backed Yes | 23c | 64.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 80c | 62.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 24c | 61.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 76c | 58.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb71…8a01backed No | 80c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 69c | 49.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x366a…ebeabacked Yes | 31c | 47.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 44c | 45.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0093…be88backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 74c | 25.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 73c | 22.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 78c | 15.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.