Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5f099ed1412d5d7bb6e3366a50ce96e38b64ca980eed69add76be72d86cd0f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3bb7…2838backed Yes | 1c | 3,423$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 3,222$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.48 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 52c | 1,257$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.13 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,184$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 33c | 877.37$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.51 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 800$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 3c | 799.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 19c | 779.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.31 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 22c | 599.93$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 9c | 591.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 32c | 553.65$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.54 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…2261backed No | 74c | 507.57$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.58 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…b648backed Yes | 21c | 433.39$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 364.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad81…efd5backed Yes | 55c | 359.86$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 25c | 329.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 57c | 320.51$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.01 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 45c | 315.96$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.86 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 49c | 299.25$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.46 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5da…de02backed Yes | 5c | 291.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…0e79backed No | 70c | 285.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 73c | 261$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 79c | 245.05$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 40c | 231.72$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.91 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 230.4$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 229.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 222.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 208.61$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.7 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…eeaebacked Yes | 29c | 206.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 50c | 205.4$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.07 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 58c | 200.6$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.25 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 47c | 193$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.83 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 191.78$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.91 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 188.05$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.03 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…ab50backed Yes | 28c | 177.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 174.62$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…f921backed Yes | 16c | 169.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b1…1f1ebacked No | 80c | 164$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 68c | 158.11$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 47c | 147.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 53c | 147.63$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 145.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 17c | 143.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 137.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…75a4backed Yes | 64c | 133.05$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.91 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 52c | 129$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 76c | 125.45$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 122.27$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 56c | 114.78$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660b…e5acbacked Yes | 38c | 105.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…defabacked Yes | 48c | 103.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -47%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 36c | 91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…1f0cbacked Yes | 42c | 89.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 47c | 87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…6bf9backed Yes | 59c | 85.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 33c | 84.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 34c | 83.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 41c | 80.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 38c | 75.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 71.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 54c | 69.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 69c | 69.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed No | 51c | 68.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 56c | 64.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 73c | 62.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9897…eb2abacked No | 53c | 60.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 34c | 59.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 53c | 56.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ac…e9d8backed No | 70c | 54.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 21c | 49.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 48c | 49.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 32c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 67c | 47.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked No | 47c | 42.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 48c | 41.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 68c | 40.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd16e…c43ebacked Yes | 49c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…de73backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…be9dbacked Yes | 51c | 39.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…e5bfbacked Yes | 43c | 38.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 33c | 38.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6083…163dbacked Yes | 40c | 37.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 37c | 36.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 37c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 70c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 62c | 31.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 63c | 31.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcadf…3245backed No | 60c | 31.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.