Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a5a1b812a87be37637b1c7d249b942a988920fd0369d1331c366f336b62dabc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 2c | 1,644$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…c6fbbacked No | 58c | 859.96$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.17 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 48c | 704.57$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.98 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 2c | 699.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 74c | 692.55$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.74 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 41c | 614.66$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.7 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 44c | 499.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 64c | 410.06$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.02 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 38c | 403.31$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.86 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 19c | 387.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 21c | 373.83$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.93 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad81…efd5backed Yes | 59c | 363.97$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 36c | 340.32$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.33 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324b…3fe4backed Yes | 41c | 338.21$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.21 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 75c | 320.75$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.34 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd95…e333backed No | 64c | 303.24$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.09 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…b648backed Yes | 47c | 301.41$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.17 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 48c | 290.65$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ce…356dbacked Yes | 50c | 264.03$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 56c | 261.46$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.42 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…160fbacked No | 15c | 259.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 49c | 253.16$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.25 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 54c | 251.05$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.4 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 227$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 207.65$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 36c | 203.11$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.27 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 202.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 50c | 200.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.25 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 31c | 200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 37c | 198.03$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.78 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 12c | 189.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 187$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.07 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 30c | 180$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.3 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 39c | 178.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.23 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 38c | 177.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.02 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 161$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked No | 62c | 149.75$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.85 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 149.08$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5a…d32abacked Yes | 38c | 147$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.14 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 42c | 142.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed No | 45c | 141.93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 70c | 136.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 42c | 132.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.69 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…75a4backed Yes | 61c | 131.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 40c | 130.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 44c | 130.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 42c | 125.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.81 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 49c | 122.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 37c | 121.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9393…9cddbacked Yes | 37c | 121.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked No | 35c | 120.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 40c | 114.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.18 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 70c | 114.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 15c | 114$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked No | 55c | 111.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4c…4070backed Yes | 35c | 104.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 36c | 104.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…ab50backed Yes | 48c | 103.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 43c | 102.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.45 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…eeaebacked Yes | 35c | 102.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…d55dbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4b…dd9dbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked No | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0a…8ea3backed Yes | 70c | 99.41$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 53c | 99.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 95.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 61c | 91.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 44c | 90.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x660b…e5acbacked Yes | 45c | 89.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 27c | 86.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 48c | 86.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 56c | 83.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9670…6852backed Yes | 66c | 81.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 43c | 81.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…acb1backed Yes | 65c | 80.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 46c | 80.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c20…472dbacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 41c | 78.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 33c | 77.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 58c | 77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 19c | 76.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Yes | 72c | 75.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed No | 24c | 75.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 70c | 71.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…adf9backed Yes | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 53c | 69.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 47c | 67.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…ab13backed Yes | 33c | 67.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed Yes | 46c | 67.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5da…de02backed Yes | 45c | 66.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 60c | 66.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 46c | 65.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 46c | 64.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 52c | 63.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 66c | 63.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 38c | 61.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 60.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 78c | 60.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.