CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: QUA (-1.5) vs NEW VISION (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaac201175e82695079282bd1509fa5c35b0217ffba2a22441518be9b1a05c848
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NEW VISIONof QUAZAR, NEW VISION
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30c7…ac3bbacked NEW VISION | 53c | 15,004$7,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,052.16 | 756 | 52.6%398 W · 358 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked QUAZAR | 47c | 9,593$4,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,507.17 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed QUAZAR | 46c | 2,505$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.02 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe8…bb28backed QUAZAR | 47c | 1,545$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.9 | 220 | 44.5%98 W · 122 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed NEW VISION | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.99 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed QUAZAR | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 597 | 55.4%331 W · 266 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed QUAZAR | 46c | 869.54$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…0355backed NEW VISION | 56c | 784.09$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.9 | 233 | 56.2%131 W · 102 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…1101backed NEW VISION | 55c | 606.19$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.08 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked QUAZAR | 48c | 584.85$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.81 | 247 | 46.6%115 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd2…0abfbacked QUAZAR | 46c | 546.98$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked QUAZAR | 46c | 458.98$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.54 | 341 | 40.8%139 W · 202 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed QUAZAR | 42c | 414.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.84 | 1,038 | 39.9%414 W · 624 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…dd57backed QUAZAR | 47c | 346.82$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.94 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked QUAZAR | 47c | 297.11$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.4 | 635 | 41.9%266 W · 369 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed QUAZAR | 49c | 244$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.48 | 619 | 48%297 W · 322 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…b4d1backed QUAZAR | 46c | 215.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed QUAZAR | 51c | 196.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 323 | 44.3%143 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223a…f30ebacked QUAZAR | 47c | 194$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed QUAZAR | 46c | 186$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 740 | 54.6%404 W · 336 L | +15.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed QUAZAR | 46c | 143.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 358 | 39.4%141 W · 217 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked NEW VISION | 55c | 134.37$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 422 | 55.7%235 W · 187 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e6…9622backed NEW VISION | 55c | 131.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.82 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed NEW VISION | 53c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…c5b4backed NEW VISION | 53c | 101.7$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 351 | 53.8%189 W · 162 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked NEW VISION | 54c | 92.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 224 | 47.8%107 W · 117 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed NEW VISION | 52c | 81.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 521 | 50.3%262 W · 259 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…52febacked NEW VISION | 54c | 78.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked NEW VISION | 60c | 58.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked NEW VISION | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 140 | 68.6%96 W · 44 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed NEW VISION | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 677 | 50.2%340 W · 337 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed NEW VISION | 58c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 610 | 54.9%335 W · 275 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked QUAZAR | 42c | 33.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 447 | 47.2%211 W · 236 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed QUAZAR | 53c | 31.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa01f…8192backed NEW VISION | 54c | 29.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed NEW VISION | 54c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc1…53babacked NEW VISION | 56c | 26.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 50cpaid | +138.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed QUAZAR | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…ceecbacked QUAZAR | 53c | 23.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked QUAZAR | 48c | 22.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 491 | 49.9%245 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: QUA (-1.5) vs NEW VISION (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #6 Play-InNEW VISION won
- Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs NEW VISION - Map 1 WinnerNEW VISION won
- Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs NEW VISION - Map 2 WinnerNEW VISION won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.