TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #6 Play-In

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
NEW VISIONof QUAZAR, NEW VISION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,767
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,539

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,767 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed QUAZAR54c11,105$6,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,048.11,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked NEW VISION31c5,651$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,901.847,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18de…7c92backed NEW VISION79c2,509$1,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.91070%7 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked QUAZAR41c1,700$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.6835847.5%170 W · 188 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed NEW VISION59c1,550$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.252,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked NEW VISION51c1,469$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.265,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x121c…ea19backed NEW VISION57c1,410$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed NEW VISION54c1,118$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.921,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked NEW VISION60c1,102$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.4475245.3%341 W · 411 L-1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed QUAZAR26c1,040$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.482,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f41…547cbacked QUAZAR50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50024447.1%115 W · 129 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed NEW VISION21c872.65$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.045,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed NEW VISION73c830.9$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.842,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed QUAZAR21c750$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.540542%170 W · 235 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed QUAZAR78c741.85$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.031,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed QUAZAR35c700$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.582,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed NEW VISION67c677.66$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.454,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked NEW VISION21c638.7$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.275,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed NEW VISION60c600.05$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.32,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked NEW VISION22c558.95$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.9875652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked QUAZAR43c489.52$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.4975833.4%253 W · 505 L-48.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x207b…8118backed QUAZAR78c481.49$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.72433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-26.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked QUAZAR28c449.8$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.843,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed NEW VISION29c440$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.3951446.9%241 W · 273 L-22.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed QUAZAR80c420.42$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.4148851.8%253 W · 235 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed NEW VISION25c390.07$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.932344.3%143 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked NEW VISION56c388.05$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.612,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed NEW VISION52c329.51$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.1542154.6%230 W · 191 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a70…0519backed NEW VISION32c309.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.5538835.6%138 W · 250 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked QUAZAR79c300$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23791945.8%421 W · 498 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked QUAZAR33c281.23$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.937922.2%84 W · 295 L-43.1wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-47.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked QUAZAR62c280$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.625344.3%112 W · 141 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff7e…8a0fbacked QUAZAR77c278.6$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.061030%3 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-50%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbbc8…4f5bbacked QUAZAR74c242.18$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.2223244.8%104 W · 128 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1273…8eddbacked NEW VISION25c239.24$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.2220957.4%120 W · 89 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked QUAZAR50c226.94$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.42,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x850a…b55fbacked QUAZAR21c222.93$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.462425%6 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cff…3984backed NEW VISION24c220.83$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.8320952.6%110 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed QUAZAR47c217.44$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.352,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed NEW VISION34c212.64$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.6941853.6%224 W · 194 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed QUAZAR17c204.45$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0988330.7%271 W · 612 L-63.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed QUAZAR75c200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed QUAZAR20c195$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.061,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked NEW VISION57c189.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.524,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a3d…9488backed QUAZAR56c185.29$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.764233.3%14 W · 28 L-6.1wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5fe0…cc67backed NEW VISION32c164$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.3120742.5%88 W · 119 L-17.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x14b0…a142backed NEW VISION31c159.24$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.585244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked NEW VISION41c156$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.62,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked QUAZAR79c145.47$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.6411155%61 W · 50 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed QUAZAR80c123.94$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.661,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf59e…f0bfbacked QUAZAR60c120$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.415060.7%91 W · 59 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked NEW VISION41c116$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.051,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e20…e3c8backed QUAZAR76c116$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.497245.8%33 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked QUAZAR19c113$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6538032.1%122 W · 258 L-18.7wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x08b5…77e9backed QUAZAR77c111.29$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.961450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed QUAZAR70c110$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5740666.3%269 W · 137 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5663…f2e5backed NEW VISION34c102.21$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.1524152.3%126 W · 115 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17b6…8ef6backed QUAZAR29c101.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307851.3%40 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked NEW VISION24c101.08$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.222,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed QUAZAR75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7561948%297 W · 322 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7275…8b45backed QUAZAR44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445736.8%21 W · 36 L-7.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-25.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1967…30b5backed QUAZAR76c100$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7629246.9%137 W · 155 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd84d…cc32backed NEW VISION25c99.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9933048.8%161 W · 169 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed QUAZAR21c95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9538131%118 W · 263 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93ed…a4cbbacked QUAZAR60c94.85$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9126048.8%127 W · 133 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed NEW VISION23c88.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2261154.7%334 W · 277 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…88f9backed QUAZAR77c81$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3747054%254 W · 216 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83dd…1517backed NEW VISION64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.132572%18 W · 7 L+4.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+30.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked NEW VISION27c74.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0771951%367 W · 352 L+28.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked QUAZAR27c71.38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.131,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x443c…d83abacked QUAZAR62c71.22$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1617055.3%94 W · 76 L+11.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed NEW VISION51c70.63$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6125440.6%103 W · 151 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked QUAZAR44c70$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.12,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed NEW VISION31c64.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6480740.3%325 W · 482 L-3.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x087b…5f0ebacked NEW VISION80c62.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.691478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick64cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed QUAZAR76c60.35$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.951,84847.6%879 W · 969 L-55.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked QUAZAR73c56.26$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.321,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed QUAZAR63c55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6525643.4%111 W · 145 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc057…0c9abacked NEW VISION28c53.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.757830.8%24 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed NEW VISION26c51.76$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.31,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc547…c570backed QUAZAR25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.58836.4%32 W · 56 L-0.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffae…55c0backed NEW VISION20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4011632.8%38 W · 78 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed NEW VISION73c49$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.332,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7134…bdd7backed NEW VISION72c48.93$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.74666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad2c…4eecbacked QUAZAR78c47.87$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4651252.1%267 W · 245 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa231…cf06backed QUAZAR58c47.73$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.89560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked NEW VISION24c46$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.961,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdecf…2957backed NEW VISION56c44.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.641963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed QUAZAR78c41.24$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9837848.1%182 W · 196 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x277b…31fabacked QUAZAR36c39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8712348.8%60 W · 63 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb445…e4a3backed NEW VISION56c37.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.55947.5%28 W · 31 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf4d…6eebbacked QUAZAR76c33.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.983148.4%15 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-25.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed NEW VISION67c31.8$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5568659.5%408 W · 278 L+65.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x54fb…e7f3backed QUAZAR32c31.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-50.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20fc…7ac9backed QUAZAR46c30.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.88666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd36…873bbacked NEW VISION42c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.424648.8%120 W · 126 L+17.4wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+8.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf4f3…d91ebacked NEW VISION53c28.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.33850%19 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed QUAZAR51c27.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.051,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x919e…371dbacked QUAZAR75c27.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.35771.4%5 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick72cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked NEW VISION65c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7512071.7%86 W · 34 L+16.7wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.