Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab0e01d7378979d8fe5ed0d47d4c54380c05c8f8bdc3ab04d29623510d36316a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc53…09e7backed No | 0c | 2,431$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 51c | 355.11$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.06 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 12c | 289.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…63ccbacked Yes | 44c | 228.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.24 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 188.78$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 32c | 173.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 28c | 138.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 44c | 120.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 40c | 119.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 119.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 55c | 118.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 113.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 39c | 111.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 42c | 105.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 105$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 57c | 102.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 53c | 98.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 23c | 95.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 58c | 90.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 46c | 89.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 33c | 85.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 47c | 82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 46c | 69.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 77c | 64.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 60c | 63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 75c | 61.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 47c | 61.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 52c | 59.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 22c | 57.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 52c | 56.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d88…39d8backed Yes | 35c | 56.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 53.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aec…6e19backed Yes | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 48.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 51c | 47.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 43.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 45c | 41.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 44c | 38.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbebe…15d5backed Yes | 47c | 38.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 47c | 36.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 53c | 34.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 53c | 32.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…baf4backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 53c | 28.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…3300backed Yes | 44c | 25.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed No | 49c | 24.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 42c | 23.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 49c | 23.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 58c | 23.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.