World Politics · resolved market
Will Jennifer Flett win the 2026 Pas-Kameesak Manitoba Legislative Assembly by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab344708e584871a50e6fac87e7ce366a7e1d0cb5505f69893447b8547f2b366
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 5c | 396.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 374$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0e…b0d5backed No | 13c | 345.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 12c | 340.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 100 | 38%38 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 15c | 316$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed No | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 14c | 291$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 19c | 247$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 60c | 224.68$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed No | 28c | 211.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked No | 27c | 185.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 12c | 181$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked Yes | 79c | 170.89$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 167$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…9445backed No | 22c | 160$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 43c | 156$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 32c | 156$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 17c | 152.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 43c | 152$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 20c | 132$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 43c | 125$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed No | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…9b5fbacked Yes | 73c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3299…0b7abacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa960…0606backed Yes | 71c | 85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…b7e7backed No | 42c | 49.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jennifer Flett win the 2026 Pas-Kameesak Manitoba Legislative Assembly by-election?this page
- Will Dan Quesnel win the 2026 Pas-Kameesak Manitoba Legislative Assembly by-election?No won
- Will Edna Nabess win the 2026 Pas-Kameesak Manitoba Legislative Assembly by-election?No won
- Will Wally Daudrich win the 2026 Pas-Kameesak Manitoba Legislative Assembly by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.