TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Team Liquid, Aurora
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$252,537
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$304,551

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,537 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4572…83ffbacked Aurora48c27,317$13,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,254.7353451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora48c25,179$12,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,984.0555157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf711…9c53backed Team Liquid50c15,000$7,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,449.99580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+58.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Liquid53c12,671$6,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,704.1396557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Liquid60c11,111$6,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,666.632854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid47c9,082$4,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,312.712,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked Aurora40c8,865$3,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,295.1522842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8375…ba1dbacked Team Liquid40c8,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,199.993154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x858e…1c3bbacked Team Liquid38c6,568$2,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4781435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Liquid41c5,884$2,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,405.91,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b91…06c4backed Team Liquid48c5,822$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8002828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-44.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Team Liquid51c5,096$2,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,602.610741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Liquid53c4,664$2,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,470.0985851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Liquid45c4,101$1,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,836.2366662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Team Liquid50c3,865$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,920.1815946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Team Liquid53c3,808$2,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,031.0889741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Team Liquid58c3,536$2,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,040.66647%31 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed Aurora40c3,500$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10016142.9%69 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4180…cf9cbacked Team Liquid50c3,204$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-33.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58f8…dc70backed Aurora41c3,127$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,844.996261.3%38 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora50c3,017$1,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,509.5880443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40a2…19c9backed Aurora67c2,499$1,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.787950.6%40 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked Team Liquid56c2,356$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.5620452.9%108 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Liquid49c2,312$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.851,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f1…7da3backed Aurora62c2,228$1,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Aurora48c2,070$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.7221264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…9c9abacked Aurora61c2,000$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.75540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75b3…be68backed Team Liquid54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0803250%16 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Team Liquid59c1,991$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.1855751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf459…7a53backed Aurora44c1,831$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.3310260.8%62 W · 40 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Team Liquid47c1,761$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.8935758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c29…21aabacked Aurora44c1,755$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.798060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e63…9e38backed Aurora64c1,754$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.9534561.2%211 W · 134 L+17.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed Aurora48c1,674$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.589959.6%59 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Aurora66c1,648$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.1912155.4%67 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+134.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b75…f8fabacked Aurora63c1,603$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.032646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Aurora44c1,461$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.3615345.8%70 W · 83 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0856…2d20backed Aurora57c1,353$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.791963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora52c1,320$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.121,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a12…d212backed Aurora57c1,186$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.798957.3%51 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora78c1,176$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.1992056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd5d2…1b03backed Team Liquid48c1,033$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+76.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4367…e904backed Aurora49c1,014$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.98666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed Aurora47c1,000$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5332035%7 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-35.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Aurora56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44038049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Aurora45c944.99$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.8460552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Team Liquid49c923.81$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.0745046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…6cc3backed Team Liquid40c858.78$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed Team Liquid25c853.32$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.1414443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked Aurora62c806.45$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.4514538.6%56 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed Aurora50c792.16$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.1621346.5%99 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked Team Liquid48c779.96$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.3837047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Aurora42c744.22$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.6571454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Aurora39c736.72$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.2964744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a1e…c2eabacked Team Liquid40c700.01$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.924540%18 W · 27 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-25.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Aurora70c630.76$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.7360251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Liquid36c617.46$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2251,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Aurora42c617.39$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.3946240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Aurora71c601.12$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.5733041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Liquid54c599.99$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32453652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6463…1f5cbacked Team Liquid58c599.99$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.999257.6%53 W · 39 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a97…6315backed Aurora67c599.72$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+37.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a65…ffcdbacked Aurora68c587.98$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.629051.1%46 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Team Liquid55c578.45$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.1123459%138 W · 96 L+0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Aurora61c571.8$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.677458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Team Liquid54c555.56$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4867…e1dcbacked Aurora47c550$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.174639.1%18 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a33…7909backed Aurora61c519.8$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.58366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Team Liquid59c508.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30043647.5%207 W · 229 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Aurora75c507.76$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.7761548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x167f…fa5ebacked Aurora30c500$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3511435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+41.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Aurora44c499.99$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28088166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1de…9ac7backed Team Liquid40c499.99$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Aurora56c477.98$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.981,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Aurora56c454.69$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.0255457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x245e…3cedbacked Team Liquid62c447.95$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.162441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x641f…942bbacked Aurora46c439.99$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.395549.1%27 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Aurora56c424.63$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.1633645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x860e…a06dbacked Aurora43c418.6$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.616440.2%66 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora56c413.33$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.162,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Team Liquid8c400$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3264123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed Aurora43c400$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22811647.4%55 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6503…0c3dbacked Aurora55c399.99$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1808461.9%52 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked Aurora42c377.33$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.952649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Aurora51c373.15$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.1526957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Aurora53c353.65$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.7658152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x022d…d8cebacked Aurora45c351.11$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.1112454%67 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2da2…8c2bbacked Team Liquid59c338.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010966.1%72 W · 37 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe375…dadfbacked Team Liquid60c333.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012948.1%62 W · 67 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3dc2…48a9backed Aurora55c316.49$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.691560%9 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f5a…aca1backed Team Liquid59c302.78$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.644355.8%24 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2139…7fe2backed Team Liquid45c301.66$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9360%0 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1fe6…5d3fbacked Team Liquid46c300.01$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1379430.9%29 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd12…5503backed Aurora29c300$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2124100%4 W · 0 L+2.9wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+264.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x216b…d5e6backed Aurora61c300$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Aurora41c299.99$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1771,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3a6…78f7backed Team Liquid57c298.86$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.31225%3 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7e0…0d8abacked Aurora64c298.38$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.5326958.7%158 W · 111 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9135…a63ebacked Aurora54c280$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+59.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.