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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Team Liquid, Aurora
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$196,226
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$255,703

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $196,226 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Liquid59c56,763$33,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,413.7655157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Aurora39c20,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,20042650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Aurora48c16,165$7,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,349.153451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Aurora39c11,947$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,246.6296557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Aurora77c10,932$8,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,496.65757.9%33 W · 24 L-7.9wins-0.14per pick72cpaid-22.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6b91…06c4backed Team Liquid22c5,292$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.192828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-44.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x33e1…b30fbacked Team Liquid8c5,000$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.42714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-70.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8523…1c9fbacked Team Liquid27c4,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08010236.3%37 W · 65 L-10.7wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Aurora62c3,344$2,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260.4918661.8%115 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed Team Liquid41c3,014$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.5516142.9%69 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa257…ea6ebacked Aurora59c2,837$1,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,171.351361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Aurora51c2,683$1,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,327.9510741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked Aurora40c2,505$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.1122842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x858e…1c3bbacked Team Liquid28c2,396$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.781435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Aurora39c2,057$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.9632854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a12…d212backed Aurora74c2,012$1,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.718957.3%51 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Liquid29c2,010$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.961,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid38c1,932$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.192,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84c4…abaebacked Aurora73c1,781$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.82560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Aurora65c1,542$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.3121264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf459…7a53backed Aurora40c1,495$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.5310260.8%62 W · 40 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Liquid49c1,253$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.461,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Team Liquid67c1,050$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70023459%138 W · 96 L+0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Liquid50c1,030$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.9333850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Liquid6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6080443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf597…efeebacked Team Liquid2c986.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.799223.9%22 W · 70 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b75…f8fabacked Aurora43c896.77$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.162646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Liquid5c858.18$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1240014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Liquid33c838.2$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.566662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7353…b476backed Aurora39c769.23$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.2310645.3%48 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked Aurora53c760.28$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.2814538.6%56 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Liquid55c684.44$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.4480742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed Aurora45c673.08$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.0810141.6%42 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Aurora43c609.99$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.2960552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe6…5d3fbacked Team Liquid16c576.67$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.499430.9%29 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9fb…95fbbacked Team Liquid54c555.03$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.928854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Aurora48c520.83$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.831,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Liquid57c500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28579959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Team Liquid40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20064149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Liquid57c494.29$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.7453652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed Aurora62c486.94$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.9421346.5%99 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora62c484.55$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18692056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Aurora39c451.87$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.6429548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Team Liquid55c428.79$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.2945046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6503…0c3dbacked Aurora64c400$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1448461.9%52 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c0a…b543backed Team Liquid58c400$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2321258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaba0…62aabacked Aurora41c400$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2361457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe375…dadfbacked Team Liquid61c396.4$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.312948.1%62 W · 67 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Aurora36c385$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.411644.8%52 W · 64 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01d4…33d8backed Aurora46c380.12$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.1211757.3%67 W · 50 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Liquid35c357.33$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.352,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Aurora48c312.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.555457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Aurora40c300.15$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.2761548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Aurora45c300$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16588166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed Aurora37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18917146.8%80 W · 91 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8232…d12fbacked Team Liquid59c284.05$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16928062.9%176 W · 104 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3a6…78f7backed Team Liquid48c269.3$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301225%3 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Aurora44c268.35$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.5428244%124 W · 158 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x860e…a06dbacked Aurora46c260.64$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.6416440.2%66 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Aurora37c250$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.560251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Team Liquid59c243.48$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.843655.6%20 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x245e…3cedbacked Aurora45c242.46$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.462441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x127a…3344backed Aurora79c206.03$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4613655.9%76 W · 60 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed Team Liquid50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014648.6%71 W · 75 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76ef…561cbacked Aurora60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806460.9%39 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Aurora48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10473743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Team Liquid49c187.67$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.4274549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11ff…4447backed Team Liquid42c183.05$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8822534.2%77 W · 148 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Liquid58c173.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10054556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Aurora62c150.88$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7526957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00fb…4442backed Aurora59c150$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.558763.2%55 W · 32 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Liquid45c145.42$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.962,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe50…b05cbacked Team Liquid59c139.24$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.931266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44f…af90backed Team Liquid61c138$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.184341.9%18 W · 25 L-5.8wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-21.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Aurora60c133.69$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4877458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Aurora60c129.87$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8513455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9ea…706cbacked Team Liquid54c129.27$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1710941.3%45 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fc…5922backed Team Liquid39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507050%35 W · 35 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f07…c74fbacked Aurora46c125$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684037.5%15 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c0…23d8backed Team Liquid39c116.33$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4523957.3%137 W · 102 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Aurora38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6247951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x055a…d83bbacked Team Liquid51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2139…7fe2backed Team Liquid62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.560%0 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x217f…5d10backed Aurora34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669128.6%26 W · 65 L+0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3726…8521backed Team Liquid50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4e2…68cfbacked Team Liquid42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa7…003fbacked Team Liquid30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3045052.4%236 W · 214 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c52…e75fbacked Aurora39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.513732.8%45 W · 92 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a28…41edbacked Aurora38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6221350.7%108 W · 105 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda6…6ae0backed Team Liquid49c99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2636051.9%187 W · 173 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81e4…532fbacked Aurora39c98.46$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.063740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x022d…d8cebacked Aurora51c98.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3312454%67 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b9…8267backed Aurora51c98.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.214969.4%34 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Aurora43c93.02$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0286451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bef…be32backed Aurora54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5913449.3%66 W · 68 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Team Liquid32c86.88$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.811,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Aurora42c83.17$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.2470236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Team Liquid49c82.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.248352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6fa…6f25backed Aurora40c82.5$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.52433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Team Liquid61c81.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5073554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.