Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab512e7d7f296f9047335951d079db85c9c97215c0ae9b6e20c79d9495d24774
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 790.56$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.68 | 4,665 | 26.6%1,242 W · 3,423 L | +65.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 24c | 675.91$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.88 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 26c | 383.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.95 | 473 | 44%208 W · 265 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 12c | 346.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 632 | 43.2%273 W · 359 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 337.82$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.29 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 10c | 333.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 335 | 33.1%111 W · 224 L | +19.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 73c | 270.52$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 232.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 2,837 | 11.2%317 W · 2,520 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 6c | 205$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed Yes | 22c | 199.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 14c | 193.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 425 | 36.7%156 W · 269 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 181.83$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 78c | 175.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 170$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 8c | 163.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.11 | 329 | 54.7%180 W · 149 L | +34.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 151.47$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2,140 | 53.2%1,139 W · 1,001 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 7c | 141.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,422 | 35.5%860 W · 1,562 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 135.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1,876 | 18.6%348 W · 1,528 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 122.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 119.07$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 21c | 109.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 105.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 18c | 105$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 20c | 100.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…1ee8backed No | 17c | 97.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.31 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 80.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 68.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 19c | 68.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 1,235 | 59.7%737 W · 498 L | +35.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 1,433 | 57.4%822 W · 611 L | +45.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 21c | 58.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 60c | 54.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 53c | 53.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 2,228 | 57%1,269 W · 959 L | +69.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 77c | 51.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 69c | 50.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 2,252 | 56.6%1,275 W · 977 L | +64.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 48.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 455 | 66.2%301 W · 154 L | +20.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 36.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 78c | 31.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 77c | 31.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 73c | 30.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 2,230 | 56.9%1,269 W · 961 L | +64.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 560 | 67.1%376 W · 184 L | +26.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 80c | 16.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 80c | 16.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 79c | 13.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d42…a046backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.