TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,496
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,488

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,496 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes51c3,800$1,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,926.9242036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No45c1,251$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.162,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes56c980.76$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.441,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes52c609.2$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.722,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No45c470.34$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.474,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed Yes61c442.38$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.187926.6%21 W · 58 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-33%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0050…cad1backed No43c356.71$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.345350.9%27 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes57c350$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.51,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No48c308$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.34,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No44c300.82$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.735,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No44c257.18$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.912,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes52c252$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.044,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No43c228.95$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.811,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes55c226.76$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.481,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No49c208.32$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.241,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No48c181.16$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.023,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes50c159.95$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.641,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No48c154.02$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.091,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No42c151.3$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.798,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No41c149.99$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.224,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No43c122.76$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x073e…8416backed No47c121.4$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.978848.9%43 W · 45 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No49c116$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.0964167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes44c112$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6228344.5%126 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa144…963bbacked Yes56c105$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x166f…dcfebacked No49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.52352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb777…a722backed No49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.57852.6%41 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked No49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.516148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed No49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.514745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed No49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.518254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes48c94.06$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.284,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No46c87$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.975,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No38c84.97$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.634,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b7…cdb7backed No50c84.92$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.463357.6%19 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb75f…f98bbacked No50c84.51$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.264647.8%22 W · 24 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae19…5cb0backed No50c82.33$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.173050%15 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes58c80$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3270741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed62…c51dbacked Yes54c80$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.234628.9%100 W · 246 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x517d…f41fbacked Yes58c77$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0113048.5%63 W · 67 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes53c75.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.991,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed No46c71.74$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7423146.3%107 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes16c64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.546,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e59…ac60backed Yes54c61.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.49728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe49f…e66dbacked Yes56c58.75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.723828.9%11 W · 27 L-6.8wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-44.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No34c57.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4945162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fb9…191abacked Yes51c53.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.511741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No41c52.68$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.081,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes51c52$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.646648.5%32 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes44c51.51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb410…56b7backed No49c51.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.124759.6%28 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.557948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2621950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0eb6…4f98backed Yes55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.51540%6 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a3a…cf77backed No48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb814…dd31backed No48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2611154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed No49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.59848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aa8…5e72backed Yes58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295137.3%19 W · 32 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc512…7fdfbacked No31c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.56744.8%30 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d10…7075backed Yes65c49.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.492222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No46c49.86$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.011,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No46c47.46$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.798565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked No49c47$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.977443.2%32 W · 42 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa657…1b1fbacked No40c45.7$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.42666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes45c45.44$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes56c45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.285049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc865…7477backed No44c44.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.217633.5%59 W · 117 L-34.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xd4e7…9cd8backed Yes60c44.52$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.71728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a53…1ee8backed No48c42.01$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.011442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes47c42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7446148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7342…d5b4backed No45c42$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9515966.7%106 W · 53 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes56c42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5289557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes52c41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3249750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No48c41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3247569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes57c40.75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.422,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes43c40.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5233232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No48c40.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8444366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d56…b88dbacked Yes65c40.01$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.92714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick46cpaid-69.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x30d6…50c3backed Yes56c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.429443.5%128 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4599571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked No49c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.613351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfad0…3a91backed No51c38.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.251735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.23per pick58cpaid-44.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x59d7…94b2backed Yes52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No46c37.05$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8987629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed No35c36.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0619648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No40c36.24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.61,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes54c34.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.962,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x426b…6bb8backed No42c34.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.89944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91c3…a2c3backed Yes54c33.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+65.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.474,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef49…d27bbacked No44c28.24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8521651.9%112 W · 104 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No43c27.44$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.642,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf949…b549backed No40c27.24$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.342100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+106.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes56c26.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1559144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6fa…69a8backed No45c26.47$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.56540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No46c25.84$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.969,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c84…3f63backed Yes52c25.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4113839.1%54 W · 84 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No44c25.34$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.181,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d4d…ac86backed No44c25.19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+48.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed Yes49c25.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.211,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.