Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b53188e7ba22e21f62031dbe8031565d475718ce2f101d96e065d6be5c4005b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 51c | 3,800$1,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,926.92 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 45c | 1,251$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.16 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 56c | 980.76$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.44 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 52c | 609.2$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.72 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 45c | 470.34$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.47 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 61c | 442.38$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.18 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 43c | 356.71$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.34 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 57c | 350$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 308$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 44c | 300.82$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.73 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 44c | 257.18$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.91 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 52c | 252$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 43c | 228.95$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.81 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 55c | 226.76$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.48 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 49c | 208.32$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.24 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 48c | 181.16$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.02 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 50c | 159.95$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 48c | 154.02$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 42c | 151.3$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 149.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 43c | 122.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 47c | 121.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 49c | 116$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 44c | 112$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa144…963bbacked Yes | 56c | 105$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x166f…dcfebacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 94.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 38c | 84.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed No | 50c | 84.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 50c | 84.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed No | 50c | 82.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 58c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 58c | 77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 53c | 75.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 46c | 71.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e59…ac60backed Yes | 54c | 61.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked Yes | 56c | 58.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 34c | 57.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb9…191abacked Yes | 51c | 53.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 41c | 52.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 51c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 44c | 51.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 49c | 51.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb6…4f98backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…cf77backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…7075backed Yes | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 46c | 49.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 46c | 47.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 49c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa657…1b1fbacked No | 40c | 45.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 45.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 44c | 44.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e7…9cd8backed Yes | 60c | 44.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…1ee8backed No | 48c | 42.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 45c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 56c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 52c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 57c | 40.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 43c | 40.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 48c | 40.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d56…b88dbacked Yes | 65c | 40.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad0…3a91backed No | 51c | 38.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…94b2backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 46c | 37.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 35c | 36.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 40c | 36.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 54c | 34.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426b…6bb8backed No | 42c | 34.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91c3…a2c3backed Yes | 54c | 33.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 44c | 28.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 43c | 27.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…b549backed No | 40c | 27.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fa…69a8backed No | 45c | 26.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 25.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 52c | 25.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 44c | 25.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…ac86backed No | 44c | 25.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 49c | 25.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.