Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x386b487f627c09350fa8dab9c78f0d8fd1c4ed157b4ae11eda6c65f3c68f9f65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 507.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 351.38$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd990…4349backed Yes | 21c | 349.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 15c | 342.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 311.2$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed No | 79c | 310$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 24c | 300.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 276.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 19c | 259.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 73c | 237.69$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 26c | 227$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 189.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 183.91$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 175.27$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 21c | 160.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 78c | 157.1$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 151.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 139.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 77c | 138.22$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 134.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 21c | 127.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 17c | 127.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 79c | 126.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 27c | 121.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 99.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 26c | 93.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 26c | 84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 82.51$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked No | 78c | 82.31$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed Yes | 16c | 79.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 32c | 78.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 27c | 71.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 65.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 65.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 24c | 64.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 79c | 61.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed Yes | 21c | 57.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 56.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 52.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 27c | 52.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 78c | 51.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 73c | 42.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 74c | 40.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 27c | 39.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 74c | 39.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 74c | 34.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 74c | 29.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 75c | 28.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 74c | 25.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 15.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 76c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 79c | 13.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.