Mls · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab5838b4e368c47521f08e76c9fe31093c30221cd1028ca949fcabcdd85c84b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego FCof Los Angeles FC, San Diego FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles FC | 11c | 2,181$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.92 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Los Angeles FC | 38c | 1,898$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.53 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Los Angeles FC | 38c | 1,714$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.42 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked San Diego FC | 62c | 931.76$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.35 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked San Diego FC | 62c | 640.77$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.49 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed San Diego FC | 63c | 599.99$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb763…cce5backed Los Angeles FC | 16c | 590$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…3447backed Los Angeles FC | 14c | 572.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego FC | 62c | 553.01$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.45 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Diego FC | 61c | 512.82$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf851…ef53backed Los Angeles FC | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Los Angeles FC | 27c | 480.8$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.56 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed San Diego FC | 80c | 320.7$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed San Diego FC | 62c | 301$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed San Diego FC | 62c | 301$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed San Diego FC | 62c | 299.99$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Los Angeles FC | 38c | 211.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Los Angeles FC | 37c | 169.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Diego FC | 63c | 148$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb109…d40fbacked Los Angeles FC | 37c | 132.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Los Angeles FC | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed San Diego FC | 63c | 88.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Los Angeles FC | 37c | 83.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed San Diego FC | 62c | 73.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed San Diego FC | 62c | 48.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed San Diego FC | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed San Diego FC | 72c | 26.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed San Diego FC | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Diego FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Diego FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Diego FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Diego FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Diego FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Diego FC: Los Angeles FC O/U 0.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Diego FC: Los Angeles FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Diego FC: San Diego FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Diego FC: San Diego FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Diego FC: San Diego FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)Los Angeles FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.