Croatia leading at halftime?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab6fa7b5034d352f9daf74f3d949397ce421a12f1f27a387f5f3b6a3f62d1081

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $226,272
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $233,282

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $226,272 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2117…5c26backed Yes	18c	29,111$5,241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,240.64	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes	18c	25,895$4,587 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,587.04	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Yes	17c	18,945$3,148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,147.77	263	20.5%54 W · 209 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes	18c	14,009$2,522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,521.64	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	5c	9,281$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465.55	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dae…fff9backed Yes	18c	5,322$975 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$975	66	31.8%21 W · 45 L	-5.6wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Yes	18c	5,200$936 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$935.99	1,536	49.1%754 W · 782 L	+32.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes	7c	3,330$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.63	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47ff…7ccbbacked Yes	11c	3,133$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.65	254	18.1%46 W · 208 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+21%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x484a…316abacked Yes	11c	2,631$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.36	66	36.4%24 W · 42 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes	9c	2,459$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.89	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed Yes	18c	2,245$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.02	406	55.7%226 W · 180 L	+17.8wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Yes	18c	2,222$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.99	674	47.6%321 W · 353 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cfe…c83cbacked Yes	10c	2,195$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.94	362	34%123 W · 239 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf91…4c43backed Yes	9c	2,186$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	56	19.6%11 W · 45 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec57…0fa7backed Yes	1c	1,543$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.63	388	19.1%74 W · 314 L	+8.1wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes	12c	1,300$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	90	17.8%16 W · 74 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb70…be84backed Yes	19c	1,053$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	64	14.1%9 W · 55 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2a…d25cbacked Yes	19c	1,053$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	191	24.6%47 W · 144 L	-6.8wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3bd…6dddbacked Yes	18c	1,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	-3.3wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked Yes	19c	1,000$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	110	42.7%47 W · 63 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa8…4de1backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	54	24.1%13 W · 41 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	18cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Yes	18c	999.99$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	246	35.8%88 W · 158 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f16…780cbacked Yes	3c	852.91$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	40	7.5%3 W · 37 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-55%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf310…9f74backed Yes	3c	833.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	89	33.7%30 W · 59 L	+6.5wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f9d…3b32backed Yes	19c	684.21$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	60	23.3%14 W · 46 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9b2…8e7dbacked Yes	8c	571.1$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.9	127	40.9%52 W · 75 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb124…7380backed Yes	18c	555.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	345	37.1%128 W · 217 L	-14.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51cf…106cbacked Yes	18c	555.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	153	21.6%33 W · 120 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4bc5…e563backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	421	26.4%111 W · 310 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0bc2…077bbacked Yes	18c	500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	178	45.5%81 W · 97 L	+8.5wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	18c	493.36$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.8	412	31.6%130 W · 282 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	12c	450$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.5	238	20.6%49 W · 189 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742e…99b2backed Yes	15c	359.56$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	230	22.6%52 W · 178 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc337…5984backed Yes	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	196	18.4%36 W · 160 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25c7…9179backed Yes	18c	322.22$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	75	28%21 W · 54 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9516…0bcbbacked Yes	18c	277.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	562	40.6%228 W · 334 L	-11.6wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes	8c	261.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	1,206	32.7%394 W · 812 L	-8.0wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6418…db52backed Yes	19c	236.84$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	40	25%10 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd421…191cbacked Yes	11c	227.78$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	139	22.3%31 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a92…50d0backed Yes	18c	219.3$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6435…e868backed Yes	18c	215$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.7	200	14.5%29 W · 171 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x323b…df9abacked Yes	19c	210.53$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	79	19%15 W · 64 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	319	20.1%64 W · 255 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x751f…e4ddbacked Yes	18c	184.98$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.3	879	38.6%339 W · 540 L	+8.3wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaec…32a1backed Yes	18c	180$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	294	30.3%89 W · 205 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad57…2fc0backed Yes	14c	173.21$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.25	131	19.1%25 W · 106 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4020…11d1backed Yes	18c	138.89$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	158	53.2%84 W · 74 L	+10.3wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1db2…dacabacked Yes	14c	120$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	193	24.9%48 W · 145 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Yes	18c	115$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.7	79	29.1%23 W · 56 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b78…4fb1backed Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes	12c	111.04$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.79	2,271	39.5%896 W · 1,375 L	+10.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc82…5af0backed Yes	18c	105.56$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	309	28.8%89 W · 220 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8091…6bf6backed Yes	19c	105.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	91	42.9%39 W · 52 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b4d…c525backed Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	170	20%34 W · 136 L	-7.3wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf12d…0fddbacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	88	43.2%38 W · 50 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x387a…8eaebacked Yes	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	329	28%92 W · 237 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0551…5498backed Yes	19c	78.95$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	42	21.4%9 W · 33 L	-6.2wins	-0.15per pick	36cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3874…30f2backed Yes	21c	47.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	108	32.4%35 W · 73 L	-8.2wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Croatia leading at halftime?this page
Portugal leading at halftime?No won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Croatia leading at halftime?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event