Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Paris FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab7adae4f12c12fc0b85bfc8e783434dfd93e52583083db1c09c3ee4ad8e9206
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $192,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 63c | 40,102$25,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,646.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 27c | 26,948$7,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,250.04 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 68c | 15,769$10,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,114.03 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 33c | 14,799$4,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,858.1 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 41c | 13,523$5,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,519.72 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 36c | 5,913$2,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,133.83 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Under | 60c | 4,156$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,656.12 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbb…55b0backed Under | 62c | 3,249$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 27c | 3,088$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.41 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 69c | 2,182$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.42 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Over | 29c | 2,116$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3c…e863backed Over | 20c | 754.04$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.02 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Over | 42c | 570.93$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Over | 26c | 510.97$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.02 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 27c | 362.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 30c | 219.16$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Over | 54c | 217.59$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Under | 74c | 202.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +6.0wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 69c | 166.48$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Under | 67c | 156.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa334…beaebacked Over | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 72c | 117.46$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 41c | 100.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc651…98efbacked Over | 21c | 98.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 39c | 93.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Over | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…2c43backed Over | 34c | 85.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Under | 69c | 83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Over | 35c | 62.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1d…95debacked Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe4…8f49backed Over | 34c | 54.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Over | 33c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…c7aabacked Over | 39c | 47.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 38c | 47.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e3…7d97backed Over | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Under | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 32c | 44.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 69c | 42.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf95d…ca8dbacked Over | 43c | 41.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…1e71backed Over | 43c | 39.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e60…18dcbacked Over | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…8de5backed Over | 43c | 25.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…3ec9backed Under | 66c | 22.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…a4e8backed Under | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…8f3fbacked Under | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Paris FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Paris FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Paris FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Paris FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Paris FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)Paris FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.