Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Paris FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61e6b1d7d3ea42499f6d4092df63f470c4f21cbada3172e406315ae7e98efb6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 2,771$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.95 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 59c | 1,428$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.68 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 62c | 800$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…85bbbacked Over | 45c | 671.11$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…c607backed Over | 50c | 596.08$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.08 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3c…e863backed Over | 61c | 491.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.53 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb36…10a3backed Over | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 25c | 388$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 29c | 330.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 75c | 317.99$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…07f2backed Over | 76c | 264.7$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 74c | 186.49$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…e8a6backed Over | 76c | 181.58$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…2f17backed Under | 27c | 166.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…e801backed Over | 49c | 153$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 70c | 137.29$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276f…bfb5backed Over | 60c | 132.79$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…ddbcbacked Over | 73c | 122.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 74c | 117.38$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 170 | 43.5%74 W · 96 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 26c | 117.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Under | 32c | 81.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 74c | 81.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 26c | 79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 26c | 67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 75c | 65.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 77c | 59.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 39c | 58.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Under | 27c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…e7cfbacked Over | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Over | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Under | 52c | 48.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf633…03acbacked Over | 62c | 42.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…4bf1backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked Over | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…3443backed Over | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed Over | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 54c | 23.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c1…b554backed Over | 68c | 22.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Over | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4523backed Over | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed Over | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 72c | 18.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Over | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Paris FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Paris FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Paris FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Paris FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Paris FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)Paris FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.