Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Union Berlin win on 2025-12-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabc7a48def013f1c1fbaa935e9e95ab6d1fb0d25198e9e96ca5354680329772e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 22c | 3,968$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.98 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 78c | 3,923$3,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.33 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b245backed No | 71c | 3,333$2,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d5…e1e2backed Yes | 28c | 2,700$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 27c | 1,585$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.76 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 27c | 1,500$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 27c | 1,162$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.24 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +5.4wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 31c | 448.39$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 22c | 359.37$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.79 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 26c | 344.92$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 16c | 337.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked No | 74c | 312.51$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.85 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1e94backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 29c | 291$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 73c | 285.15$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…3eadbacked Yes | 28c | 217.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 209.6$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154b…4917backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f20…87c9backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…3ef7backed Yes | 28c | 196.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 71c | 195.9$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee44…0082backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f4…8bf4backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 26c | 112.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 71c | 110.53$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8985…2e25backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 97.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 26c | 93.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 16c | 71.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3928…78d0backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 72c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab50…2247backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…70fdbacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…8539backed Yes | 30c | 47.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 71c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 74c | 29.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 116 | 61.2%71 W · 45 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Union Berlin win on 2025-12-06?this page
- Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. Union Berlin end in a draw?No won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-12-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.