Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Kasatkina (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabe1e12de4f8d1552303784576817643994be2d7cf799f758e1b42424dd70c96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Kasatkina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Kasatkina | 31c | 7,115$2,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,225 | 363 | 46.8%170 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Sabalenka | 73c | 1,651$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.24 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Kasatkina | 26c | 1,263$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.5 | 996 | 49.5%493 W · 503 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Sabalenka | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…d723backed Sabalenka | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 191 | 46.6%89 W · 102 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Kasatkina | 17c | 800$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.88 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked Sabalenka | 77c | 710$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.4 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Sabalenka | 75c | 686.36$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.25 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…91dfbacked Sabalenka | 70c | 424.81$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…8ee7backed Sabalenka | 74c | 405.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.74 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc88…87adbacked Sabalenka | 74c | 400.68$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.53 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Kasatkina | 28c | 357.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,579 | 39.8%629 W · 950 L | -34.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…a56ebacked Sabalenka | 70c | 328.89$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Sabalenka | 68c | 315$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.44 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Kasatkina | 28c | 285.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Kasatkina | 20c | 266.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 721 | 32%231 W · 490 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Sabalenka | 69c | 257.13$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.67 | 578 | 42.4%245 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Kasatkina | 39c | 256.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Kasatkina | 22c | 241.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Kasatkina | 28c | 240$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Sabalenka | 65c | 230.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 478 | 54.8%262 W · 216 L | +25.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Kasatkina | 30c | 190.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Sabalenka | 69c | 161.29$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Sabalenka | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 434 | 49.1%213 W · 221 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ec…5124backed Kasatkina | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Sabalenka | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf19b…1613backed Sabalenka | 80c | 123.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 176 | 50.6%89 W · 87 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sabalenka | 69c | 114.91$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Sabalenka | 53c | 80.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 365 | 35.1%128 W · 237 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Kasatkina | 18c | 72.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Sabalenka | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa324…eae0backed Sabalenka | 70c | 68.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -5.5wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Kasatkina | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Sabalenka | 59c | 58.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…49b1backed Kasatkina | 28c | 57.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…5a52backed Kasatkina | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…8a64backed Sabalenka | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…6461backed Sabalenka | 70c | 42.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Sabalenka | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 130 | 57.7%75 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Sabalenka | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 184 | 43.5%80 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Sabalenka | 70c | 25.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 790 | 62.2%491 W · 299 L | +25.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Sabalenka | 59c | 23.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 746 | 46.1%344 W · 402 L | -30.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Sabalenka | 73c | 22.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 200 | 48%96 W · 104 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Sabalenka | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Sabalenka | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 594 | 66.7%396 W · 198 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a8…9cc7backed Sabalenka | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Kasatkina (+1.5)this page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Daria Kasatkina: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria KasatkinaAryna Sabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Kasatkina: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs KasatkinaSabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.