Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac002b57db4e73031274d1554821c3ccf2e50dc5759bb1f473d35a8e2f7adc42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 29c | 273.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 234.06$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 32c | 211.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 200.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 177.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 128.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 117.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 98.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 70c | 80.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked Yes | 34c | 79.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 75c | 76.37$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 74.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 73.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 69c | 55.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…7b51backed Yes | 33c | 54.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 67c | 52.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 67c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 49.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…7980backed Yes | 33c | 46.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 31c | 43.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 72c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 30c | 41.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…f8c6backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 35.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd521…1889backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 67c | 34.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 72c | 30.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 71c | 29.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 68c | 29.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 77c | 24.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 24.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked No | 68c | 22.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 68c | 21.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 68c | 15.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 68c | 15.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca5e…4a1cbacked No | 69c | 15.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 75c | 13.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on May 29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.