TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on May 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,612
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,371

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,612 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes42c1,011$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.988,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b3…f0bebacked No46c693.01$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.368270.7%58 W · 24 L+7.0wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes72c662$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.4146733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes50c345.98$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.264,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No35c317.77$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd53b…fc94backed Yes68c308.96$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.862560%15 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked No56c273.51$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.0673927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes30c263.54$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.059,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No51c233.98$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.964,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes34c208.97$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.3517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes35c205$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.81,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes54c201.73$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.895,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No57c190.37$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.992,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes43c178.23$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.321,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf9e…4726backed Yes56c177.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.01771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No27c165.64$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.036,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No66c159.23$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.772,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes69c153$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.931,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No27c151.45$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.951,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0173…d05dbacked Yes68c144$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.521770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No29c135$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.155,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No40c134.15$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.963,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c118.97$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.551,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No60c111.69$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2799963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef0…62e0backed No48c104$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9219052.1%99 W · 91 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01eb…b04abacked Yes57c102.64$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449341.9%39 W · 54 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b23…1bc5backed No49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.191838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed Yes40c99.34$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3416134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No33c98.3$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.735,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes24c82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No64c79.82$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No51c78.16$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.025,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No49c77.39$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2286952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No61c76.36$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9419057.9%110 W · 80 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d46…f816backed Yes39c66.9$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.065851.7%30 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No20c65.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1229717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c62.2$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes32c60.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3268645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe925…7c4fbacked Yes66c60.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.61450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes28c53.64$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.641,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes35c52.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3516324.5%40 W · 123 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No73c51.72$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6788973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes51c51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9984930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.62,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes57c43.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0798160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc11…dadbbacked No46c43.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015749%77 W · 80 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No65c43$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a87…70aabacked No49c40.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-66.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.188650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d9…fc14backed No51c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.614540%18 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No61c37.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.798,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes46c37.4$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1682742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17f2…adcabacked No69c36.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511163.1%70 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes43c35.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3630652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes43c35.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.242,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes51c35.2$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3646452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No51c34.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.451,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x477f…9144backed Yes50c33.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.949741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes48c32.94$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.989,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No61c31.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0971159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes34c30.65$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2391861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No49c30.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No67c30.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0365965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.234846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.71,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No49c29.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.521,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeb7…2f0fbacked Yes63c29.19$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.66862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes70c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.754154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No70c27.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4393837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb423…c178backed No53c26.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1326861.6%165 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No57c25.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6246667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11a9…4182backed No55c25.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.989260.9%56 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No42c24.45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.329262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No65c23.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.621,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x17a8…3509backed Yes52c23.11$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.112725.9%7 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bdb…9059backed Yes61c22.3$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3fb…cbc4backed No72c20.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.851040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No72c20.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf16…3a05backed No52c20.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6110667%71 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes60c20.15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.158134.6%28 W · 53 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.664960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f06…93c2backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102295.5%21 W · 1 L+4.9wins+0.22per pick73cpaid+32.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x47cf…5732backed No76c19.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156160.7%37 W · 24 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick70cpaid-17.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No69c18.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.641,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No74c17.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1382562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8c…2155backed No58c17.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-20.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeda8…7795backed No60c17.11$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.281250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0558…a8cdbacked No60c17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2211867.8%80 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick68cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43c7…18dbbacked No72c14.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.561361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick72cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No77c14.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111977.3%92 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.