Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac11fc388c009662fb58ad2269d6456e3575eac3527d79dd29cda7e552867822
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 340.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…5250backed Yes | 42c | 328.01$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.58 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 277.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 11c | 272.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2248…53d0backed No | 75c | 271.74$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 22c | 236.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 11c | 215.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 211$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 202.22$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 173.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 173$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 17c | 159$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 45c | 155.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 27c | 140.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 17c | 128$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 126.22$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 48c | 124.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.41 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 52c | 122.31$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 36c | 108.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe576…4954backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 29c | 99.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 20c | 98.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 29c | 86.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 26c | 83.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 74c | 77.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 74.32$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 69c | 70.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c7…e947backed No | 73c | 68.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 65.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 52c | 64.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 76c | 63.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 52c | 62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 71c | 61.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 76c | 60.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 66c | 59.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 75c | 57.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 28c | 57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 76c | 53.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 32c | 46.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 78c | 44.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 32c | 44.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 73c | 43.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 29c | 43.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 66c | 42.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Yes | 26c | 39.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 39.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 76c | 38.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 65c | 38.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 75c | 37.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 31c | 37.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 74c | 36.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 70c | 35.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 77c | 33.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 32.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…1759backed Yes | 73c | 29.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 54c | 28.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 28.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 77c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 69c | 25.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 64c | 24.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…1181backed Yes | 54c | 23.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 68c | 16.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 69c | 16.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacca…8996backed No | 70c | 14.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on May 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.