Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e5311132146ca19d9e9f01ccb0607843b9a40fd87a8b83ed16409c391ab4b4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 2c | 972.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 897.95$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.37 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 67c | 553.18$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.4 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 48c | 523$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 75c | 399.37$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 76c | 336.03$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 77c | 329.08$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.56 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 16c | 304.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 65c | 287.61$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.86 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 26c | 280.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.43 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 38c | 204.47$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4139…0a12backed Yes | 74c | 202.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 32c | 200.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 79c | 178.62$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 164.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 61c | 162.65$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.31 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 149.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 142$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed No | 20c | 129.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 39c | 126.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 22c | 123.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed No | 27c | 118.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…32a2backed No | 46c | 115.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 33c | 112.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 72c | 109.08$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 52c | 108.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…5250backed No | 27c | 106.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 69c | 105.03$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 101.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x14fd…50afbacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 29c | 98.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 78c | 96.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed Yes | 67c | 93.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacca…8996backed Yes | 55c | 92.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 69c | 88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 38c | 87.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 28c | 86.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 55c | 84.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 35c | 83.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 45c | 77.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…ec75backed Yes | 68c | 75.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 25c | 72.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c7…e947backed Yes | 70c | 71.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 68c | 70.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 68.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 18c | 67.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 59c | 67.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 27c | 66.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 39c | 64.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 32c | 64.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 26c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes | 57c | 57.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…1181backed Yes | 37c | 56.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 51c | 54.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 32c | 51.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 57c | 50.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 65c | 50.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 63c | 50.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 57c | 50.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…6bd8backed No | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 73c | 49.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 34c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 73c | 47.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…f9c4backed No | 39c | 47.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 48c | 46.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 71c | 46.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 57c | 44.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 32c | 43.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 45c | 43.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 76c | 43.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…7401backed Yes | 40c | 43.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 38c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…e559backed Yes | 45c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…b4bebacked Yes | 67c | 42.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 41.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 42c | 40.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69cd…0c69backed Yes | 69c | 39.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked Yes | 54c | 37.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 60c | 36.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 53c | 36.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 40c | 36.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7d…fd73backed No | 46c | 32.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed Yes | 64c | 31.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed No | 36c | 29.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…b090backed Yes | 69c | 29.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.