Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac6c9e8c92e4bb29196c909a8966ab4aefead2a8df5c0bc32e037cb433a15b76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 9c | 2,462$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.66 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 945.16$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 23c | 635$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.25 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32af…a7c3backed Yes | 8c | 399.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 7c | 355.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 11c | 348.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 5c | 291.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 18c | 238.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 234.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 232.21$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 226.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 214.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 75c | 199.59$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 8c | 198.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 18c | 188.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e2…a783backed Yes | 8c | 170.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7870…e1a7backed Yes | 13c | 160.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 20c | 141.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfe…4325backed Yes | 23c | 129.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 12c | 126.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…4330backed Yes | 21c | 125.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 10c | 123.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 122.67$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 20c | 114.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 25c | 109$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 79c | 108.38$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…42efbacked No | 78c | 89$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 78.92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 79c | 75.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 20c | 75.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 17c | 67.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 79c | 63.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x262f…2198backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 61.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 80c | 61.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 57.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 55.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 55.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 21c | 53.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 24c | 50.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 80c | 49.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 79c | 47.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…0e26backed No | 80c | 43.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 79c | 38.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 78c | 25.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 78c | 25.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…3144backed No | 80c | 23.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 18.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e9…15dcbacked No | 80c | 15.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…8f82backed No | 78c | 14.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.