NHL · resolved market
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac6fc262a242c9771bc43ba31e79bd82768ef790144a10021dfea6fd5372d1a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Oilers, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Oilers | 42c | 6,767$2,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,828.65 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Capitals | 59c | 5,005$2,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,073.92 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Capitals | 62c | 1,500$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.4 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Oilers | 38c | 1,439$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.56 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Oilers | 40c | 1,438$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.9 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Capitals | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Capitals | 58c | 654.05$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.7 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Capitals | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed Oilers | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ba…5a0fbacked Oilers | 37c | 489.94$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc776…2915backed Oilers | 4c | 478.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Capitals | 80c | 467.3$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.89 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5c…e4f6backed Oilers | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Capitals | 57c | 443.43$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.24 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Oilers | 43c | 414.79$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.36 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Capitals | 62c | 387.1$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.1 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Capitals | 74c | 364.78$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Capitals | 57c | 345.12$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.4 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Capitals | 58c | 344$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.48 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Oilers | 11c | 332.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed Capitals | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Oilers | 41c | 304.88$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Capitals | 56c | 300$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffb…245ebacked Oilers | 16c | 298.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Oilers | 38c | 279.53$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.22 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Oilers | 42c | 273.81$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Oilers | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Capitals | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Capitals | 58c | 180$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Oilers | 34c | 150.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…6900backed Capitals | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Oilers | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Capitals | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Capitals | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…e7b5backed Capitals | 62c | 104.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Oilers | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Capitals | 19c | 89.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | +14.5wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +218.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Capitals | 61c | 83.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Oilers | 44c | 82.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Capitals | 58c | 68.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Capitals | 58c | 67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Oilers | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Capitals | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Oilers | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Capitals | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Capitals | 78c | 47.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Oilers | 42c | 47.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Oilers | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Capitals | 58c | 37.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Capitals | 62c | 33.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Capitals | 61c | 32.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Capitals | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Capitals | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. OilersOilers won
- Capitals vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.