World Politics · resolved market
Will Kim Jong-hoon win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac75e53e00f5cd101ad284f3c026e26593ffe4a94edfe6580927ecb336aba5b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec43…885abacked Yes | 30c | 3,342$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 7c | 3,293$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.98 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,948$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked Yes | 2c | 2,121$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9e…56a1backed Yes | 5c | 1,577$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.29 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed Yes | 1c | 1,148$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70f3…3df7backed Yes | 7c | 928.27$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 3c | 874.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 5c | 556.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 489.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 402.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 378.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 41c | 275$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.02 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d0…4427backed Yes | 7c | 256$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 43c | 246.14$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.04 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +15.2wins | +0.28per pick | 31cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 230$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked No | 43c | 24.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 65c | 21.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kim Jong-hoon win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?this page
- Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?No won
- Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Park Maeng-woo win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.